熊猫之死

偶然在电视新闻里得知“祥祥”的死讯，凑巧此时我正身在卧龙。

对于饲养员和跟踪研究人员来说，遗憾与伤心自然是可以理解的；外界的反应如何，我一无所知；对我个人而言，这个消息并不值得惊讶，何况还是一个严重迟到的消息。动物的野化和放归属于科学实验，所以无论成败，都属于正常的实验结果，正像传说中爱迪生发明灯泡的经历一样，最后成功源自于前面3000次的失败。祥祥的死亡在一定程度上暗示了多年来的人工繁育和圈养的确使得熊猫部分失去了自然条件下的生存能力，当然，这究竟是基因水平上的退化还是行为发育水平上的影响还需要进一步的研究，但就科学价值而言，野化实验的这一次失败来得正当其时。

正在令人惊奇和不解的是，新闻中明确指出祥祥的尸体被发现是在2月19日，那么为何要延迟至今才对外透露？总不会也同矿难事件一样想瞒天过海吧？其实上个月我在与保护区内部人员的一次交谈中就已经对此事有所察觉，当时对方欲言又止，令人疑惑。抱歉，我实在想不出隐瞒一次普通科学实验结果的动机何在，倘是军事机密也就罢了，可是熊猫野化有什么可保密的呢？左思右想，也只能向熊猫背后的政治意义延伸。

由于种种原因，熊猫这种普通的哺乳动物被赋予了太多的政治内涵，以至于远远超出了其本身的生物学意义：国家层面上，它俨然已经成为了中国外交的形象大使，从这种意义上来讲，说团团圆圆是打入台湾内部的大陆特工倒也不全是无理取闹；地方层面上，熊猫一直是卧龙特区的立身之本，4000多老百姓确有近千人的管理局，若不是国宝支撑，怎么可能。

长期以来，卧龙自然保护区以及熊猫研究中心的工作重点并非野生动物的原位保护，而是熊猫的人工繁殖，数量上倒也确实成绩斐然，每年新增10-20只小宝宝，成活率超过90%，以至于到了“熊满为患”的程度，不得不另建新园。至于人工繁殖的质量，则一直是一个讳莫如深的话题，连续的近亲繁殖再加上与终生世隔绝的铁笼生活，这些国宝的种群质量不能不令人担忧。于是在迟到了数十年之后，年轻力壮的“祥祥”走出牢笼，它不仅仅要接受陌生的自然环境的严酷挑战，更背负着庞大的人工繁育种群的命运，还有中国人民特别是相关负责人员的殷切希望，实可谓重任在肩，只许胜不可败。然而现实只认可自然规律，根本不近人情，在野化实验的第一个冬天，“祥祥”并不出人意料地出了“意外”。观测人员在雪地里发现了遍体鳞伤奄奄一息的祥祥，显然它是在与同类的争斗中败下阵来了。一般来说，动物行为研究的基本原则是人为干预的最小化，虽然有时候眼睁睁地看着一只动物死去确实显得有些残忍，但为了整个种群乃至整个生态系统的健康发展，也为了科学的客观性，这一点是非常必要的。不过出于种种原因，熊猫研究中心不但救活了祥祥，还在它恢复之后将其放归，也许是寄希望于这一次仅仅是一个意外。然而在不久之后，这个希望就遭到了更为沉重的打击。

祥祥的死到底能说明什么？从科学上来讲，现在还言之过早。要证明笼养熊猫的野外生存能力，一个样本的实验显然是不够的，还需要更好的实验设计，更多的野化个体以及对照观测，这决不是一朝一夕能够完成的工作，好在新的工作已经开始起步。更多的顾虑来自于政治层面，相关部门担心公众的误读，更担心上级部门对自己工作成绩的否定，这些顾虑使得熊猫之死变得扑朔迷离，科学也总是这样受到政治的羁绊。不过话又说回来，与其说熊猫是一种野生动物倒不如称之为政治动物更为妥当，就像一个街头青年突然摇身一变成了演艺明星，整个的个人价值体系彻底颠倒，在熊猫身上坚持理想主义的动物保护，也确实有一点儿自欺欺人的味道了。

总之，这一次还算好，只是延迟，至少没有说谎。

道别

来去匆匆，只好在这里向朋友们致谦，很多许诺都未能兑现，特别是未能与远道而来的海涛和海成相见，很是遗憾。

看来今后这样颠沛流离的生活要成为常态了，如俺老爹所言：“年轻的时候就该忙点儿”。

临行前终于咬牙买下心仪已久的漫画集《我在伊朗长大》，山谷寂静的夜晚慢慢翻读，疲倦与清冷一扫而空。

与Tim再度合作，一如既往的笑声中明确意识到自己的头脑在走向成熟——也许真的足够老了。

Wave~

踢皮球

都说中国人不会踢球，实在是天大的冤枉。我看咱们官僚踢皮球的本事绝对不逊于巴西。

以往都是扮演球的角色，倒也习以为常了。今天突然接到命令紧急扮演球员角色，第一次上场，还真是颇不适应，一天下来，受煎熬的程度比皮球也好不了多少。

具体经过不便透露，总之皮球同志实在也只能怪运气不济。就像上访的群众一样，你也很难说里面有没有“刁民”，但是不管怎么说也总得有个人给个正式说法吧。理论上讲，就算球门再小，只要努力也总有进球的可能，问题是球队的教练压根就不希望进球，场上队员的责任就是不停地开大脚，直到踢出控制范围为止。既不费力，又不得罪人，两全其美的妙计，踢皮球大概是官场入门的必修课吧。

身心具疲，我不干了，回家卖红薯去！

一米线

“一米线”在中国的大多数城市里都已经是司空见惯的东西了，司空见惯到大家熟视无睹的程度。不过直到最近一次在首都机场乘飞机的时候，我才注意到安检入口处立着几块醒目的说明，专门对“一米线”的来历做了个解释：一米线是从西方开始出现的，有科学家研究发现，一米的距离是人与人之间最舒服的安全距离……

看完这个，眼前第一个浮现出的就是从前在Magnum看到的一张民国时期上海人在银行门口排队领黄金的照片（因通货膨胀严重，银行不得不向个人发放配额黄金），人与人之间的距离嘛，用个时髦的词汇，那叫“零距离接触”，最后有4个人被活活挤死。现在有了一米线又如何呢？不管是在银行还是在收款台，只要排队的人数超过三个，相邻两人距离超过30cm，瞬间就会有人插进来，所以你要是真的坚持老老实实等在一米线之外的话，那大概确实要等到花儿也谢了，当然，如果你是身高2米体格壮硕面带杀气的超级猛男除外。

我在抱怨吗？不不不，我只是在陈述一个事实而已，而且我也早就已经习惯了，并开始明白这其实是社会文化的一部分。中国是一个有着十几亿人口的国家，在不久以前，我们的人均居住面积还少得可怜，三代同堂挤在十几平米的小屋里并不是什么丢人的事情，当然个人隐私也就没那么多讲究了。所以排队的时候当然也要注意节约空间，或者干脆也不必那么多讲究了，大家挤在一起“公平竞争”吧。春节那会儿听说为了迎奥运北京还组织公交排队，真是可笑，结果不出所料，不出俩月，又一切照旧了。我没去过香港，听说香港人在那边排队是很自觉的，但是一旦过了罗湖口岸之后就跟内地人没有两样了，看来他们也并不是从心底里对个人空间有太高的要求的。

当然，对个人空间的要求也是根据物质生活水平发生变化的。现在一部分人的收入水平显著提高了，对空间的要求提高一点也是正常。不过在公共空间里，大家都是平等的，如果没有那么多资源可供分配，那你也只能忍着点儿。我上大学的时候有一次参加xx代表的讨论会（那也是最后一次跟官僚体系合作的经历），居然有一个代表用个人安全感为理由维护一人占多座位的合理性，当时真想把书包扔到他脸上去。那会清华的自习教室何其紧张，一人一个座都抢不到，还讲究个屁个人安全感，我不管你是什么富家子弟，要怕不安全，回家躲着去好了。

说实话，我也不喜欢取钱的时候身后有个人贴着的那种如芒在背的感觉，所以对于一米线的出现，我是举双手赞成的。但是大可不必因为西方人用了一米线就非说中国人也最适合一米的距离，同样，排队也好，遵守交规也好，社会文化的东西，总要有个缓慢的过渡过程，条件成熟了自然就水到渠成了，这可不是靠红头文件和严打能够实现的。

诚然像新加坡那样靠严格管理维护秩序的“成功”案例也不是没有，但是如果多数新加坡人并不喜欢这样严苛的法律的话，我想这样的成功也并不是一个值得学习的榜样。谁会喜欢生活在一个处处有“电屏”被老大哥监视的社会环境中呢？所谓自觉，还是要靠自己觉悟才行。

We're the Champions

The sweet of triumph and revenge. What a wonderful day!

'Second Nature' online

The Nature magazine in the online role-play game? Oh, I must be crazy... But it is!

A Natural Fit: For Science Journal, Web Is 'Second Nature' - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

By Hilmar Schmundt

Nature, the world's best-known scientific publication, is now being transformed into a multimedia platform that includes include blogs, podcasts and even a Second Life presence.

Timo Twin wanders along a beach looking slightly confused, then zigzags up a nearby hill. "Finally! I knew it was here somewhere," he says. Across a vast square the logo of his company, Nature, is emblazoned in big white letters on a red background.

Twin has arrived in his new realm, on an island in the online role-playing game Second Life. The name of the island is fitting: Second Nature. The avatar bears only a vague resemblance to the real-life Timo, a tall man in his late 30s with a slightly round, Harry Potter-like face. His real name is Timo Hannay, and he is something like the representative of the scientific journal Nature in the virtual world.

...now this bastion of academic high culture is developing a presence in a bustling game world? It's about as shocking as the news would be if the Queen of England were to announce that she was packing up and moving to Las Vegas.

Billy & Milan

昨天的圣西罗球场属于一个人，他的名字是Alessandro Costacurta，也就是我们熟悉的老Billy。


20年前身披同一件球衣在同一块场地上首度登场，从此开始一段红黑色的传奇，米兰5号——没错，就是那个当年曾经在丰田杯上被小水牛戏耍的5号，就是那个曾经一度沉沦的5号——但是，挫折无法屈服铁汉的脊梁，当我看到Billy以40岁高龄在欧冠赛场上安若磐石的防守时，当我看到Billy是如何将闹意见的队友加图索像拎小猫一样拎下场时，我才真正理解Milan的足球哲学。

下半时，米兰获得一个点球机会，正如大家所期待的一样，老Billy走向点球点。

一蹴而就！Billy打进职业生涯第三球，也是最后一球。

一分钟后，41岁的Billy被18岁的Di Gennaro换下，全场球迷起立致敬。一个20年的传奇，41岁的米兰5号，终于走到了职业生涯的终点，哦，不，应该是转折点，在24日凌晨的雅典，我们会看到身着西装的Billy依旧坐在安切洛蒂的身边，就如同20年前一样。从现在起，我们要称其为教练员Billy了。

谢谢你，Billy，祝你好运！


这是新水木AC Milan版献给Billy的进版画面：也许，有一点儿伤感，但这份伤感中又涌动着温暖，那是家的温暖。从Baresi到Costacurta，再到将来的Paolo，米兰人在用一连串的传奇创造着一种特别的足球文化。这种文化早已远远超越了“更高更快更强”的单纯体育精神，我从中读出的两个词是：忠诚与信任。

我们常说足球是十一个人的运动，其实更确切地讲，是十一个人组成的集体，而不是十一个独立的个人的运动。要将个人组织成一个集体，可以有很多不同的方式，既可以选择现代的商业化管理，也可以采用传统的家庭式管理。后者虽然看似已经落后于时代，但对于小规模组织来说，却也有其得天独厚的优势。究竟选择哪一种方式，除去经营者本人的理念之外，很大程度上也要取决于所处的社会文化环境。

先扯句远的，估计当年看过《美国往事》和《教父》等美国黑帮电影的观众中肯定有人会有这样的疑问：为什么美国的黑帮都是意大利人、犹太人这些外来少数民族，而鲜有“正宗美国人”呢？这不单单是外来移民经济困难的原因，更重要的是这些民族传统的基于血缘或地缘关系的集体文化。即便是远渡重洋来到遥远的北美大陆，多数人还是保持着家乡传统的价值观，因此他们依旧沿用着相似的社会组织形式，一种依赖于忠诚与信任而搭建起来的等级结构。相比之下，高度市场化的正宗美国人信奉的是fair play的自由竞争，除去军营之外，这样的社会文化几乎是不可能容许绝对“老大”的存在的。

回过头来还说米兰，这是一只意大利人经营，意大利人管理，以本土球员为主力班底的典型意大利球队，而意大利又恰恰是欧洲大陆上传统家族文化氛围最为浓厚的国家之一。所以当我们看到安切洛蒂，塔索第，巴雷西，科斯塔库塔等等老队员依次从一而终又相继走上母队的管理岗位时，就不应该感到奇怪。当然，如果用现代的企业经验管理理念来衡量，Milan的用人模式是陈旧落伍不合时宜的，但就是这样一只不合时宜的球队在过去的五年里三度杀进欧冠决赛，成绩用无可辩驳的事实证明了米兰的成功——传统并不输给现代。对米兰来说，更衣室里的传统文化才是这支球队无比稳定的根基，因此对于引援工作来说，溶于球队，溶于米兰文化，远比个人能力更为重要。去年夏天以1800万高价购入的新7号奥利维拉的米兰之旅以失败收场，综其缘由，正在的问题倒不在于其个人能力优劣，其实他的处子秀可谓相当成功，但是由于种种原因，他始终游离于球队整体之外，一个人孤独地带球、射门，这样的性格，慢说是他，就算是前足球先生里瓦尔多也要黯然离场，米兰需要天才，但更需要一个团结信任的集体。当一条平均年龄超过34岁的爷爷级后防线在顶级赛事中表现出无可挑剔的稳健与坚毅时，我相信没有人会怀疑，足球并不单单依靠身体、技术和才华，一个团结默契相互信任的整体才是真正不可战胜的。

正如冠军教头银狐里皮在捧得大力神杯之后所坦言：“我所挑选的并不是最有才华的22名球员，但这22个人能够组成最有战斗力的集体。”有人说这是一只丑陋的球队，因为它缺少惹人尖叫的个人秀，但这正是蓝衣军团胜利的关键所在，也正是亚平宁文化迷人的魅力所在。

愿米兰文化星火相承，世代不熄。Forza！

美国防部亡羊补牢

早知今日，何必当初呢？也许亡羊补牢，犹未晚也，只是可怜枯骨。

不过布什一定还是会失望的，因为科学的态度也许能够为和平创造一个机会，却绝无可能帮助他赢得"the global war on terror"。

Science 27 April 2007:
Vol. 316. no. 5824, pp. 534 - 535
DOI: 10.1126/science.316.5824.534

News Focus

CROSS-CULTURAL RESEARCH:
Pentagon Asks Academics for Help in Understanding Its Enemies

Yudhijit Bhattacharjee

A new program at the U.S. Department of Defense would support research on how local populations behave in a war zone

The Iraq War was going badly in Diyala, a northern province bordering Iran, in late 2005. A rash of kidnappings and roadside explosions was threatening to give insurgents the upper hand. Looking for insights on how to quell the violence, the U.S. Department of Defense invited a handful of researchers funded by the agency to build computer models of the situation combining recent activity with cultural, political, and economic data about the region collected by DOD-funded anthropologists.

The output from one model, developed by sociologist Kathleen Carley and her colleagues at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, connected a series of seemingly disparate incidents to local mosques. Results from another model, built by computer scientist Alexander Levis and his colleagues at George Mason University (GMU) in Fairfax, Virginia, offered a better strategy for controlling the insurgency: Getting Iraqis to take over the security of two major highways, and turning a blind eye to the smuggling of goods along those routes, the model found, would be more effective than deploying additional troops. The model also suggested that a planned information campaign in the province was unlikely to produce results within an acceptable period of time.

Researchers and DOD officials say these insights, however limited, demonstrate a role for the social and behavioral sciences in combat zones. And a new program called Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling will greatly expand that role. John Young Jr., director of Defense Research and Engineering and architect of the program, has asked Congress for $7 million for fiscal year 2008, which begins on 1 October, as a down payment on a 6-year, $70 million effort. Agency officials expect to direct an additional $54 million in existing funds to social science modeling over the next 6 years. Under the new program, the agency will solicit proposals from the research community on broad topic areas announced periodically, and grants will be awarded after an open competition.

Officials hope that the knowledge gained from such research will help U.S. forces fight what the Bush Administration calls a global war on terror and help commanders cope with an incendiary mix of poverty, civil and religious enmity, and public opposition to the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq. "We want to avoid situations where nation states have unstable governments and instability within populations, with disenfranchised groups creating violence on unsuspecting citizens," says Young. "Toward that goal, we need computational tools to understand to the fullest extent possible the society we are dealing with, the political forces within that government, the social and cultural and religious influences on that population, and how that population is likely to react to stimuli--from aid programs to the presence of U.S. troops."

Beyond bombs and guns. DOD officials say social science models can supplement the use of force to reduce violence in Iraq. CREDIT: MAURICIO LIMA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The approach represents a broader and more scientific way to achieve military objectives than by using force alone, according to Young. "The military is used to thinking about bombs, aircraft, and guns," he says. "This is about creating a population environment where people feel that they have a voice and opportunity." Such tools would not replace the war games that military commanders currently use to simulate combat between conventional defense forces. Instead, the models would give military leaders knowledge about other options, such as whether improving economic opportunity in a disturbed region is more likely to restore order than imposing martial law and hunting down insurgents. Once developed in academic labs, the software would be installed in command and control systems.

The plan has drawn mixed reactions from defense experts. "They are smoking something they shouldn't be," says Paul Van Riper, a retired lieutenant general who served as director of intelligence for the U.S. Army in the mid-1990s. Human systems are far too complex to be modeled, he says: "Only those who don't know how the real world works will be suckers for this stuff."

But retired general Anthony Zinni, former chief of U.S. Central Command and a vocal critic of the Administration's handling of the Iraq War, sees value in the program. "Even if these models turn out to be basic," he says, "they would at least open up a way for commanders to think about cultural and behavioral factors when they make decisions--for example, the fact that a population's reaction to something may not be what one might expect based on the Western brand of logic."

The new program is not the first time the military has tried to integrate cultural, behavioral, and economic aspects of an adversary into its battle plans. During the Cold War, for example, U.S. defense and intelligence agencies hired dozens of anthropologists to prepare dossiers on Soviet society. Similar efforts were made during the U.S. war in Vietnam, with little success. But proponents say that today's researchers have a much greater ability to gather relevant data and analyze the information using algorithms capable of detecting hidden patterns.

A few such projects are already under way. At the University of Maryland, College Park, computer scientist V. S. Subrahmanian and his colleagues have developed software tools to extract specific information about violent incidents from a plethora of news sources. They then use that information to tease out rules about the enemy's behavior. For example, an analysis of strikes carried out by Hezbollah, the terrorist group in Lebanon, showed that the group was much more likely to carry out suicide bombings during times when it was not actively engaged in education and propaganda. The insight could potentially help security forces predict and counter suicide attacks. "This is a very coarse finding, not the last word by any means," cautions Subrahmanian, adding that a lot more data and analysis would be needed to refine that rule as well as come up with other, more useful ones. Last year, the researchers applied their tools to provide the U.S. Army with a detailed catalog of violence committed against the United States and each other by tribes in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region.

Other modeling projects are addressing more fundamental questions. With funding from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, mathematical economist Scott Page of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and his colleagues are modeling societal change under the competing influences of an individual's desire to act according to his or her values and the pressure to conform to social norms. The work could shed light on which environments are most supportive of terrorist cells, information that could help decide where to focus intelligence-gathering efforts and how to bust those cells. The research could also help estimate, by looking at factors such as rise in unemployment and growing social acceptance of violent behavior, when a population may be plunging into chaos. That in turn could help commanders and policy-makers decide when and how to intervene.

Accomplishing those goals is a tall order, Page admits. "Despite tons and tons of data from U.S. elections," he says, "we are still not very good at predicting how people will vote."

Building comprehensive and realistic models of societies is a challenge that will require enormous amounts of empirical data, says GMU's Levis, a former chief scientist of the U.S. Air Force. But it is doable, he says, adding that the field will benefit greatly from linking social science researchers and computer scientists. "The goal here is to win popular support in the conflict zone," he says.

卧龙片段

青葱的山脊，蒙蒙的雨雾，淳朴的村民，慢节奏的生活。龙门阵有空儿再摆。