12/29/2007

为了像Prada的Gucci

年终岁尾,总是要在酒精的麻醉下才能极不情愿地提起笔来,草草码几行字,算是新桃换旧符以迎接变幻之时。醉眼朦胧中浮现竟然出阿妙打开铁匣的情景:一个小小的笔记本被取出,上面写着“阿妙n岁,离开鱼市”;另一个小小的本子被放入,上面写着“阿妙n+1岁,离开鱼市”……

人生来就不平等,有人生在富贵人家,万事不愁;有人只有一个潦倒老爸,还背着一身赌债。然而无论王子与乞丐,至少每个人的心中都可以有不受现实羁绊的梦想。哥伦布梦想到达东方,阿妙梦想离开鱼市。我们常说知足常乐,然而一个相反的事实却是,我们又都相信手边的东西总不是最好的。鱼佬、饼佬、猪肉佬,与其说比较哪一个更好,毋宁说哪一个离得更远。当Prada与Gucci都摆在眼前,阿妙只好回答:像Prada的Gucci。

像Prada的Gucci,它的存在与否并不重要,因为一旦出现,它也就会被新的梦想所代替。而miss,正是为了考验梦想而存在,所以每个人都在不停地错过一些东西,直到放弃梦想。很难说梦想带给人更多的究竟是幸福还是痛苦,但至少有一点可以肯定:追求梦想本身应该是生命的意义的一部分。

Vladimir与Estragon在等待戈多时曾这样说:

- He should be here.

- He didn't say for sure he 'd come.

- And if he doesn't come?

- We'll come back tomorrow.

- And then the day after tomorrow.

- Possibly.

- And so on.

- The Point is ——

- Until he comes.
...

- It's not certain.

- No, nothing is certain.
...

- Shall we go?

- Yes, Let's go.

They don't move.

戈多会来吗?这不重要。重要的是,你愿意等待吗?

12/26/2007

清华大学失踪

一个重大发现:清华大学失踪了!

清华大学距离我的实验室大约500米,中间只隔一条轻轨和一片棚户区,今天临窗眺望,突然发现眼前一片空白,清华大学的建筑连同那条轻轨铁路一同消失的无影无踪。

北京城果真是个大大的魔术师,可惜这会儿没赶上奥运会,不然咱给世界人民也展示一把“鸟巢失踪”。当然了,在官方的语法书里,北京与污染两个词连用属于逻辑错误,发言人会说:“那是雾。”

看来要提高空气能见度,还得先提高社会能见度才行。

12/25/2007

Magnum: Merry Chrismas

This is a little gift from the Magnum Santa Claus? Click and enjoy it.

12/24/2007

民族主义的起源

经同学提醒,才想起圣诞这回事。既然我不是耶稣这洋大人的门徒,自然也不必操心为他老人家贺寿,不过倒是也沾光难得一次地决定不加班,回家把Eastwood的大作《硫磺岛家书》翻出来看完了。

我向来厌恶战争,因为在我看来,多数战争都是愚蠢的选择,本来有更好的纳什议价解,偏要搞成Pareto-inferior,自己搭上身家性命也就罢了,还要连累无辜亲族以至后代子孙。所以但凡颂扬战争英雄光辉事迹的东西,是断然不入法眼的,不过对于从个人视角反省战争的作品,倒是有些兴趣,因为我总是想知道,究竟是什么东西使原本应该理性自私独善其身的人变成了英勇无畏丧失理智的“疯子”,而且那些条件影响着他们的疯狂程度。我这里用“疯子”这个词,是作中性用,有一点儿疯劲未尝不是好事,比如雷锋就是个疯子,但我认为他是大好人。其实实验证明这个世界上大多数人都不是太理智的,这正因为如此我们才没有彻底被铜臭味淹没。不过一旦疯昏了头,就难免要出乱子。

疯子一扎堆,通常就要产生民族主义,或者叫国家主义,往高了拔叫爱国主义,往地下按就叫纳粹或是原教旨主义,其实只是疯狂程度不同而已。其特征可以抽象成两点:对内奉行利他主义(altruism),对外奉行排他主义(parochialism)。对于神智清醒的人来说,前者总是值得表彰的,后者就该批评了。可惜这两者还总是黏在一起,用辨证唯物主义的套话来说,有点儿对立统一的意思。

关于民族主义的的起源,文学青年可以去看论述纳粹主义和反犹史的大部头,而对数学感兴趣的不妨读一读Jung-Kyoo Choi和Sam Bowles在2007年10月26日那一期Science上发表的论文:The Coevolution of Parochial Altruism and War
Altruism — benefiting fellow group members at a cost to oneself — and parochialism — hostility toward individuals not of one’s own ethnic, racial, or other group — are common human behaviors. The intersection of the two — which we term “parochial altruism” — is puzzling from an evolutionary perspective because altruistic or parochial behavior reduces one’s payoffs by comparison to what one would gain by eschewing these behaviors. But parochial altruism could have evolved if parochialism
promoted intergroup hostilities and the combination of altruism and parochialism contributed to success in these conflicts. Our game-theoretic analysis and agent-based simulations show that under conditions likely to have been experienced by late Pleistocene and early Holocene humans, neither parochialism nor altruism would have been viable singly, but by promoting group conflict, they could have evolved jointly.
此文的模型并不复杂,其实就是简单的进化博弈论,但是动态模拟的结果很清晰醒目: 民族主义在群体冲突中产生并通过激化冲突而强化,在这种情况下,单纯的排外或是利他都不是稳定策略,只有两者联合,亦即民族主义,才是进化稳定的。

从理论出发,再回过头去看历史与现实,很多问题就都不言自明了。不论是亲人仇人陌路人,只要在保家卫国的感召下,都能变成一个战壕里的好兄弟。所以每当一个政府需要摆脱窘境转移民众注意力的时候,统治者往往只好夸大宣传国家或民族矛盾,借此激发集体主义精神,而掩盖政府的无能。诚然,适度民族主义也许能够暂时提高社会生产力,不过这绝对是非常危险的办法,一旦群情激奋到一定临界状态,就没有人能够踩刹车了,虚构的矛盾会成为真实的战争。这可不是童话,古往今来的战争狂人与独裁者都深谙此道,所以战争大多由妖魔化的宣传开始,古今中外皆是一理,并不是某一社会阶段或意识形态专有的危机。

话说前些日课题组讨论会上,一个新来的研究生做开题报告,介绍文献调研情况的时候涉及到日本的学术研究,还特别提高了声调强调了一下“小日本”,令人哭笑不得。既然做科研的人也带着这样强烈的民族主义情绪,整个社会的浮躁状态也可见一斑。日本那边的情况我不了解,不过就目前中国国民病态心理的成因而言,至少我国媒体是要负很大责任的。

比如早些时候国内某些知名媒体拼命鼓吹默克尔接见达赖以及德国指责中国黑客攻击等等造成中德关系如何紧张,还援引《明镜》云云,仿佛外交战争一触即发。害得我老爹看了电视以后连夜给我打电话,劝我莫去德国以免受迫害。结果我翻遍了近两个月的《明镜》,也没看出德国人有敌视中国人的意思,反倒是揶揄女总理不务正业的居多,在德国的朋友们也都说没人在意这些事情。敢情都是咱国内的媒体自己yy,一副唯恐天下不乱的样子。由此推断,长期以来听到的关于日本、台湾之类的报道评论,大概也多是自编自导的主旋律故事片。

不过说到底,媒体虽然无良,也总不过是替罪羊而已。国内的新闻审查何其严格,舆论风向自然是要牢牢把握,想控制民众情绪还不是易如反掌?

所以只要信息交流的控制不被彻底打破,民族主义的火焰就总不会熄灭,而冲突和战争也就不会停息。David Korten 在他的新书 The Great Turning 里号召建立一个 earth community 以打破“帝国主义”造成的人类灾难,这个愿望我很欣赏,不过这条社会进化的道路要怎么走,我的眼前一片迷茫。我等草根小民,与其豪言济世救民,还不如聊以自保更现实。

12/07/2007

电视的功能

听说全世界收视率最高的电视新闻节目《新闻联播》更换播音员了,好像还颇有些热心观众关心此事。那么这些备受关注的播音员到底扮演着什么角色呢?

由于一直没有时间也没有兴趣了解国家大事,我居然一时想不起来央视原来有过哪几个播音员了,只好google一下:罗京,……,赵忠祥,杜宪,薛飞。最后两个名字让我眼前一闪。

我接下来想起了什么?希望看到敏感话题的同志请回去闭门思过,咱要全力支持和谐社会。

我想起的是Edward Murrow。

莫罗先生和罗京先生是同行,二战的时候在CBS的电台工作,后来变成了CBS的See It Now电视新闻播音员。时事造英雄,恰逢上世纪50年代的时候美国威斯康星州选出了一个名叫麦卡锡的共和党参议员(从此政治辞典上就多出了一个新词汇:麦卡锡主义),其实此人就是社会主义国家的一个镜像,也想在美国搞大清洗,说谁是共党谁就要倒霉(现在布什把共党换成了恐怖分子),于是美国一时间人心惶惶,人人自危。这时候,镜头前的莫罗先生拍案而起,横眉冷对麦卡锡的威胁,最终引发了麦卡锡的倒台。纽约时报的评论员Jack Gould事后写道:"last week may be remembered as the week that broadcasting recaptured its soul."(这段故事可以在影片《Good Night and Good Luck》中看到)

莫罗的直率并不仅仅如此。在1958年的美国广播电视主管联合会上,他言辞激烈地批评广播产业为"fat, comfortable, and complacent" ,对电视媒体的评价是 "being used to detract, delude, amuse and insulate us",并因此被迫离开了CBS。然而更为不幸的是,他准确地预言了大众传媒的走向,这一预言用在当下的中国尤为贴切。

反正都是一样的空洞,换来换去,还不如学某些电视台玩裸播显得更坦率些。

如果一定要看电视新闻的话,我推荐半岛电视台,架个锅可以收得到。

12/01/2007

Invitation from VerveEarth

I received the invitation from Clayton, a young guy running the website VerveEarth, which looks like a combination of google map and global voice, but not as serious. I have no idea about the niche of my irregular blog on it. Anyway, best wishes for Clayton!

Now, you can find my blog on the world map by clicking on the logo of VerveEarth at the bottom of the right-hand side panel.

11/30/2007

偶遇啄木鸟

前日清早甚冷,在去实验室的路上只好拼命踩脚踏车取暖。刚刚从十字路口拥堵无序的车流中杀出,猛然间一个神经冲动提醒我,刚才头顶上有什么东西,更确切地说,好像是一只啄木鸟。啄木鸟?近日里起早贪黑忙得头昏眼花,不会又是眼花了吧?

不待多想,我发现自己在已经调转车头往回骑了。嗯,好像是这棵树。抬头。老天,果然是一只斑啄木鸟。北漂的第八个年头,第一次在城区里见到啄木鸟,居然还是在这条车流滚滚、乌烟瘴气的马路边。

我说老兄,你怎么跑到这里来了?莫非你也给“绿色”奥运当托来了?或者京城的环境确实改善了,只是我不够敏感罢了?可惜没带望远镜,只好走得近一点,一不小心跨越了它的安全线,于是拍拍翅膀飞走了,留下我站在树底下发呆。

到了实验室,问伙计们在京城见过啄木鸟没有,果然也都一律摇头。倒是得到了一句忠告:“以后在街上骑车眼睛要看路,不要老往树上盯!”

都是从山里带回来的后遗症。

11/15/2007

电邮之死

Gmail最近附加了一些新的聊天功能,不过对我个人来说意义不大,倒是想起了前些天在Slate上看到的这篇小文章。

The death of e-mail. - By Chad Lorenz - Slate Magazine

究竟还有多少人更常写email,又有多少人更喜欢网上聊天呢?Chad说现在的孩子们都抛弃过时的email了,但是对25岁以上的人网络用户来说,离开email的日子是难以想象的。

遥想其实并不算久远的当年,第一次在网上注册了免费邮箱,小心翼翼码好字,轻轻一点鼠标,信件瞬间送达收信人信箱,再不用跑到邮局买邮票,更不必天天祈祷绿衣天使不要一时疏忽投错了地址。那感觉确是畅快。

如今,年轻人又以同样的理由抛弃了email。他们说:email太慢了。的确,多数人最多不过一天收一次信而已,有谁会不停地检查自己的邮箱呢?所以年轻人选择更快捷的方式:聊天。大家都挂在线上,随时保持联络,虽远隔千里也宛若比邻而坐,空间与时间的距离顿时都被压缩得可以忽略不计了。

不过,仅仅是速度的问题吗?

想想我们过去是怎么写信的:正襟危坐,小心落墨,时切葭思起笔,恭顺顿首煞尾。落笔之前总要思量一下词句,成文之后不免还要诵读一遍。故而即便是平日私信家书,也不乏流传千古之佳作。

进入电邮时代,形式主义大都被简化掉了,最多一个“你好”或“Hi”开头,行文也不必小心翼翼,写错了只需backspace即可。不过整体上读起来还多少要有一篇短文的意思,起码要思路连贯通顺。

到了短信聊天时代,最后的形式阵地也沦陷了。一切文法甚至标点都成了累赘,连错别字似乎也无所谓,而且听说这种“火星语”还在90后的孩子中间流行起来了。

马桥人说科学是城里人为懒惰找的借口,多少有些道理。一方面我们的生活节奏越来越快,另一方面我们也变得越来越懒,或者说是实用主义。这是文化的演化,按照红心皇后的规则,我们要么快点跑跟上脚步,要变成老古董。

昨天,某位大师兄突然要给老外写email,不知如何起笔,于是从我这里借一模板。一会儿工夫又跑过来问我:“用得着写那么长吗?”答曰:“客套总是有点儿用的。”潜台词:与老古董打交道,还是要用老古董的办法。

11/14/2007

心头的墙

从柏林墙的倒掉算起,整整18个年头已经过去了,但是德国人心头的柏林墙是不是也已经倒掉了呢?《明镜》最近的一次调查研究结果给出的答案是“不”,至少还没有完全被拆掉。就像照片上这堵墙上所写的:“还有很多墙需要拆除”。


调查邀请了分别来自前东德和西德地区的500名16-24岁青少年以及相同数量的中年人回答一些关于东西德的问题,从统计结果中能够清晰地看到不同群体之间的差异。比如下面这个问题:如果(柏林)墙今天重新树立起来的话,你更想生活在哪一边?
选择东德的东德人分别占35%(青少年)和37%(中年),而做出相同选择的西德人只有9%(青少年)和2%(中年)。而差别最为显著的一点在于如何看待民主德国的社会制度。92%的东德中年人在怀念社会主义的安全福利体系,这个比例在青少年中也达到47%,而持相同观点的西德人只有48%(中年)和26%(青少年)。

部分差异可以由身份认同解释。82%东德中年人认为自己与西德人不同。不过随着社会的融合,青少年的身份认同已经趋于一致。但是年轻一代仍然通过父辈口中的故事各自重绘着那段他们未曾经历的过去的时光。对此,《明镜》的评述是:“透过玫瑰色的眼镜,他们看到的是一个人人有工作、家家享受从摇篮到坟墓的社会福利的东德。当然,这一代人并没有经历过社会主义控制下的生活的另一面——比如排长队买食品或者秘密警察的骚扰。”

一个人在遭遇现实的不如意时,总是会怀念“美好的过去”,于是一个美好的过去也便应这样的心理需要逐渐被人为塑造出来。东德的孩子们说:“很遗憾前东德那些值得骄傲的东西没有留下来。”

看完报道,不禁想起近年的两部德国获奖电影《再见,列宁》和《别人的生活》。二者分别从两个不同的视角回顾着被柏林墙阻隔的岁月,正像一枚硬币的两面,很难讲究竟那一面更能体现硬币的价值,但有一点明确无误——两面相同的硬币是伪造的。

前些日子在联系去Kiel的工作,顺手在Google Earth上一搜,惊叹道:“好家伙,差一点儿就掉到墙那边去了!”看来不知不觉间我心头也复制了这么一堵墙。

PS:对“中国人”来说,墙不如沟形象,要把政治上的沟填平了不难,要把人心里的沟填平了可不容易,我们的“统战”工作基本上一直在打脱靶。

11/12/2007

三人成虎

“夫市之无虎明矣,然而三人言而成虎。”魏大夫庞恭大概不会想到,当年他打的这个夸张的比喻,两千多年以后居然要变成活生生的现实了。

一张野生华南虎存疑照片的公布,如一石激起千层浪。有人质疑,毫不奇怪,毕竟这个亚种在我们的视线中消失已经长达24年,而随着时间的推移灭绝的可能性也在日渐增大。被认为已经灭绝的物种又被重新发现的事情并非没有先例,但是这种情况发生在虎这种大型食肉动物身上,的确是很难想象。理论上讲,一只华南虎的生存需要至少100平方公里的捕食领地(注意,是捕食领地而不是活动范围,也就是说在这100平方公里的领地上必须都有可捕食的动物活动),而且由于虎属于领地性动物,成年虎的领地几乎不重叠,这就意味着,镇坪县境内280平方公里的化龙山保护区至多只能容纳2~3只成年华南虎,而这样小的孤立种群规模几乎是不可能维持的。诚然,保护区以外的山林也可能作为潜在的栖息地,但是从Google Earth上不难发现,这些林地已经被公路切割而破碎化,对于动物来说这些公路就是难以跨越的鸿沟。当然仅仅纸上谈兵是有违科学精神的,毕竟在得到充足的证据证实或证伪之前,nothing is impossible,赌脑袋还是有些风险的。

事件发展的可笑之处在于陕西林业厅方面在受到广泛质疑之后总是在拿出更多的不能提供任何新信息的照片来证明照片自身的真实性,如果说三人成虎听起来有一点儿荒谬的话,三张同样的照片成虎就近乎于愚蠢了。而最新的发展就更有一点儿无厘头的倾向了,“现场模拟拍摄是最经得起检验的证据”,不知道这是哪一位高人提出的理论。无论真伪,如果当事人当时能拍出照片来,事后当然也能拍出同样的照片来,这个实验最多只能检验出照片是不是出自周正龙本人之手。而目前所谓的调查组成员似乎也全部是陕西方面的“嫌疑人员”,这无异于被告自己给自己充当证人,只能是将事情越描越黑。

其实从技术上讲,解决争议的步骤并不复杂,先把照片扔一边,组成一个多方联合的调查团队在实地做调查,如果能采集到可疑样本的话,送交第三方化验即可。不过现实中的问题,大概更多的不是科学问题,不然某专家也不会在不知深浅地跳出来之后就迅速鸣金收兵了。虎在纸面上的存在意义,对一部分人来说事关重大,远非学术二字所能涵盖。为避免大家脸上难看,为今之计最好是“拖”为上策,毕竟在偌大一片林子里找一只老虎不像在屋子里找大象那么容易,就算最后两手空空不了了之,也只能说是“没找到”而不能证明“不存在”。小布什在伊拉克找大规模杀伤性武器不是也颇找了几年吗?有耐心的就慢慢等吧。

11/10/2007

晚上去便利店买菜,回来一算帐发现好像多拿了店里一包虾皮,遂连忙返身回去核实。店员忙了半天从废纸堆里翻出小票,经核对果然少付了钱,于是“补票”。看两个店员的表情,大概在惊讶:“天呐,这年头怎么还有这样的呆子!”

呆,并非不识仨多俩少,实乃价值观念使然。实话说,这里的店员多半态度生硬,争执也不是没有过的,那是为了维护个人正当权益,讲究的是一个公平,fairness。这回主动回去补票,同样是为了“公平”二字。公平不等于平等(equity与equality,为这两个词的实质区别,还与几个老外颇争论过一番),超市老板的财产肯定多出我好几个数量级,但“君子爱财取之有道”,不能因为人家比我富裕就不讲公平。“劫富济贫”听起来倒是大义凛然,可是如果大家都按照这个原则行事,我们就只能后退到吃不饱饭的公社化时代了。维护社会平等,保障“积极自由”,这还是要靠税收与福利制度的再分配来实现,目前的情况确实令人不满意,那是政府的问题,一码是一码。要维持市场秩序,公平还是基础。

不过如何在高流动性的社会群体中普及公平观念倒确是一个问题。在一个较为封闭的小群体中,依靠直接回报或者声誉积累都能够推进公平观念的演化,这是理论与实践都已经证明过的。但一旦社群规模过大,且流动性增强,就比如北京上海之类人口众多且流动人口比例很高的所谓大都市,与陌生人合作就显得不那么“理性”了。按照这样的逻辑推理,广州深圳的社会治安问题并不意外,倒是不出问题比较让人费解了。更本质的问题是:与人为善究竟是一种文化的产物还是可遗传的性状呢?

又想起儿时看过的童话中的一句格言:宽厚之人不为钱财所困。一直以为是善有善报的意思,现在才领悟其实更靠谱的解释可能是宽厚之人不在乎钱财,所以才不为所困。这就是“呆”。

11/09/2007

在徘徊中长大

“我想成为一个先知……”——这是六岁的玛赞的人生理想。

上一次野外工作出发前,我把沉甸甸的玛赞四卷本漫画放在了行李箱中,原本只是希望木版画的风格和神秘的伊朗能够冲淡些许山中夜晚的清冷与寂寥。后来才渐渐意识到,与其说这是关于伊朗的故事,毋宁说是关于长大的故事。

不得不承认,我对于伊朗的知识,大约仅限于古波斯的一点儿传说、霍梅尼的些许传奇、内贾德的几句妄语和97年马达维基亚在金州体育场的那脚世界波。不过历史的演进大抵都是照猫画虎,王朝的更迭,列强的压迫,革命,革命,革命……战争与和平以及意识形态的控制,对于一个中国读者来说,大概除了毛拉的大胡子以外,没有一条是完全陌生的。幸好,这只是故事的背景,而并非故事的主题,不然八十大元就打水漂了。

长大,并不只是从80公分拉长到180公分或者学会看到异性就两眼放光那么简单的过程,更不是在纸上从起点向目标画一条直线。“信仰并非不可动摇”,这与立场是否坚定无关,除非一个人丧失了学习和思考的能力。

1979年,社会革命的呼声在德黑兰此起彼伏,每个人都在为革命而疯狂,包括九岁的小姑娘玛赞。《辨证唯物主义》的连环画使她从上帝倒向了马克思,当然还有英雄般的马诺什叔叔。直到她明白为什么不能以革命的名义用钉子去戳瑞曼的眼睛,自由的种子开始在她幼小的心灵中萌发。

革命的胜利并未带来期待中的幸福,反而剥夺了更多的自由,头巾回来了,还伴随着更多严苛的宗教束缚。集体主义与原教旨主义的媾和诞下的是战争的孽种,一切为了国家,一切为了民族,一切为了宗教,“烈士的献身是向社会的静脉注入鲜血”,数以千计被许诺美好生活的孩子,脖子上挂着‘开启天堂大门的塑料钥匙’,在地雷阵上被炸上了天。Slate的新闻说有一位大毛拉曾在讲话宣称每一位为圣战牺牲的烈士可以在天堂里得到72个处女和若干寡妇,真不知这么多的处女和寡妇又是从何而来的。总是只有在失去以后才能学会珍惜,当自由的空间被压榨到近乎极致的时候,玛赞开始为追求个人的自由与独立而抗争,她孤身一人去了奥地利。

在奥地利,她见识了彻底的个人自由主义:她结交虚无主义者,遇到冷漠自私的房东,经历了一厢情愿的爱情,最后几乎病死在路边的长椅上。所以当伊朗的朋友对她的奥地利经历表示羡慕时,她的回答十分简短:“他们会让你一个人冻死在大街上。”个人自由主义世界的冷漠使她想起家的温暖,于是她回到了伊朗。

重返祖国的玛赞发现自己如同在奥地利一样格格不入,政教合一的政府依然严格控制着国家的意识形态。也许自由本身究竟是不是幸福的一部分还需要争论,但是只要想象一下,如果一个美术学院的学生只能对着一个包裹的严严实实连手脚的看不见的模特写生,一个普通人连决定自己穿什么衣服的权力都没有的话,那么在这样的社会中生活肯定算不上幸福。于是在经历了一段被父亲预见到的短命婚姻之后,玛赞决定再次选择自由。她去了法国。再后来,就有了这套漫画。

我们无从知道玛赞后来是不是找到了适合她自己的生活,也许她仍然在自由与集体的选择之间徘徊。但有一点是肯定的,正因为没有所谓先知,所以每个人都要在这样的反复徘徊中长大。人们常说“人生道路漫长而曲折”,其实在我看来并不十分准确,事实上是人先天性的短视和太多的岔路造成了行走的困难,因为总是无从判断当下的选择在下一刻意味着什么。

“自由是要付出代价的。”

10/24/2007

苦海无边


如果没有人肯收留你,那么欢迎你来到“上帝之城”,因为上帝不会嫌弃任何人。哦,对不起,这里是上帝之城,不是伊甸园,而是上帝的收容所,这里没有天使,没有花园,这里有的是贫穷,有的是毒品,还有杀人犯……但是,你会适应的,你会爱上这里,并且成为它的一部分。

随着Rocket的照片与回忆,一个帮派倒下了,另一个帮派等不及擦干血迹就粉墨登场,上帝之城的混乱与灾难似乎永无尽头。爱思考的人会问:为什么?成语词典给出两个选项,一是“人以类聚,物以群分”,二是“近朱者赤,近墨者黑”。你选哪一个?抑或二者兼而有之?

其实这两个过程并不矛盾,相反,他们组成了一个自增强的回路,从而出现了社群的分化,即朱者愈朱,墨者更墨。比如民意调查显示,绝大多数居民都不反对不同种族的混合社区,但是事实是真正的混合社区少之又少,原因仅仅是“还是跟同种族做邻居更舒服一点儿”。同样,大多数政府都没有限制穷人与富人混居,但是在几乎所有的大城市里,穷人区与富人区都是泾渭分明,即便各自的地理自然条件并没有显著差异,比如说我实验室窗外就是一大片棚户区,住满了外地打工仔,而这块三角地区周围都是著名高校和繁华的商业区,大家倒是井水不犯河水。理由也说得通,一方面从经济上讲,同一社区的配套服务设施不同很难满足不同消费能力的住户;另一方面从心理上讲,经济地位的不平等造成的无形压力也不可忽视,所以对于穷人来说,跟穷邻居挤在又脏又乱的棚户区也好过看富人的脸色。因此,很显然这是一个双稳态模型,并不存在一个和谐共存的中间稳定状态。不过到此为止我们只讨论了问题的一个次要方面,即为什么人们要坚持住在上帝之城,而并没有回答为什么上帝之城会灾难不断,莫非穷山恶水出刁民?(早三十年,这可是严重的阶级立场错误!)

从Durlauf的membership理论说起吧,也就是说社群成员的贫困化并不是单单由该社群中的独立家庭或个人的能力决定的,即使他或他们有充分的自主选择权,按照Berlin的说法,他们拥有足够的“消极自由”。但是根据社群主义的观点,社群的每个成员都不是完全自由的,他们都要在不同程度上受到所处环境,特别是社会环境的约束和引导,所以当年孟母才会三迁。可惜孟母只有一个,所以也只出了一个孟子,更多的孩子还是在自家的屋檐下长大。且避开“人之初,性本善”的哲学辩论不谈,人的认知过程总是随着成长一点一滴积累的,而学习模仿的对象就是身边的榜样:先是父母兄弟,然后是邻家的同龄娃,在后来就是街上的孩子王了。如果他们从小看到的就是耀武扬威的黑帮老大,那么他们的成长轨迹也就可以预料了,这一类的香港古惑仔影片应该不用再多加描述。而贫民窟恰好又具备其他促成犯罪的客观条件,比如低收入和高失业率,再加上警察也也只为纳税人服务,所以在形成气候之前,新的一代有足够的空间孕育。另一个不可忽视的问题是公共教育。大多数的教育体系都遵循着一条“公平原则”:多付出多享受。因此富人区的学校与穷人区的学校的师资条件差距也丝毫不逊色与社区的经济条件差距(例如北京与河北省的高考录取分数线),这种公平的结果就是“穷人的孩子不爱念书”,当然他们走出贫穷的可能性也就更小了几分,而投入街头帮派怀抱的可能也相应大了几分。

所以说,人生而平等,在法理上基本上得到了公认,但在现实中却很尴尬。即便幸而避免先天残疾,又心智健全,也还要面对社会环境的困境,而这些都是无法选择也无法回避的。苦海即便不是无边,回头也绝非易事,就算自己幡然醒悟,无论是水里还是岸上也总有人不愿你得救,比如说前几天还看到有人在豆瓣某小组里发言呼吁限制低水平网友自由发表评论的权限。要填平苦海,非要先移除人心头的上帝之城不行。

10/22/2007

科学与美

英国的Complicite刚刚推出了一部新的话剧:A Disappearing Number(消失的数字)。Science上出人意料地登了一篇介绍:

MATHEMATICS: Variations on a Theorem

A math lesson in southern India, circa 1900. The teacher is explaining what happens when you divide a number by itself--if you have ten fruits, and divide them between ten people, each gets one. Likewise with a thousand fruits and a thousand people, and for any other number you might care to mention. Srinivasa Ramanujan, a young boy already displaying unusual talent and a fondness for asking difficult questions, challenges: "But is zero divided by zero also one? If no fruits are divided among no one, will each still get one?"
Ramanujan,好眼熟的名字……终于记起来了,上小学的时候翻过一本科普读物,其中提到过一个英年早逝的印度数学天才,“拉曼纽扬”。隐约记得他提出过一个很奇妙的计算圆周率的方法,可惜生前没有发表,很久以后才有人从图书馆的一本旧书里发现那张稿纸。我把这个故事讲给同学听,他们居然不信,后来也就忘记了这个名字。原来他的故事远比圆周率更传奇。

剧本的另一个重要人物是Ramanujan的导师,英国数学家G.H. Hardy。这可是一个鼎鼎有名的人物,我随身的小记事本上现在还保留着他的一句名言:Beauty is the first test: there is no permanent place in the world for ugly mathematics. 他相信数学家的作品是像诗人一样用灵感来编织的。在这一点上,他的学生有过之而无不及,Ramanujan推导定理的过程是惊人的跳跃式的,以至于Hardy本人也觉得难以理解,但是他很快做出了判断:Ramanujan一定是正确的,因为他推导的定理“是美的”。


美与正确之间有必然联系吗?我不知道,Hardy也没能证明,但是毫无疑问,这是人类科学史长久以来的一个重要思想出发点。回溯到古希腊的毕达格拉斯学派,他们认为世界是由简单整数组成的(不知道这是不是“和谐社会”的理论起源),在这一理论基础上产生了最早的音乐理论,即两个和谐的音调的频率比也是和谐的整数比,这是一种巧合吗?理论生物学的天才McArthur提出物种分布的岛屿理论,即物种数量与岛屿面积的简单指数比例关系,几乎已经成了相关专业领域内的默认定律,可是他的理论来源是什么呢?更一般的数学形式,比如power law(幂率)和fractal(分形),都一直是不同学科乐此不疲的研究对象,我也在本科的毕业论文里胡诌了一通,但是我们为什么都希望这些规律是正确的呢?我想一个根本的原因还在于它们“看上去很美”。就像爱因斯坦的E=mc^2,不论其推理过程是如何的复杂深奥,这个简洁优雅的结果总是让人从直觉上乐于接受的;同理,一代又一代人甘愿把毕生心血投入到证明费马定理或者歌德巴赫猜想之类的“无聊游戏”之上,其动力大概也只能用“对美的追求”来形容。反过来讲,当人类基因图谱测序完成的时候,我们也能由对这浩繁无序结果的简单一瞥而意识到,这只不过是万里长征的第一步而已,距离理解还有很远的距离,因为它还远远算不上美。

我曾经在研究生院的课堂上斗胆站出来挑明在科研领域广泛存在的对美的盲目信仰,但是事实上,在很大程度上,我自己更是一个虔诚的信徒。我宁愿相信,如果果真如Whewell所言:"We can perceive that events are brought about not by insulated interpositions of Divine power, exerted in each particular case, but by the establishment of general laws",那么这些general laws也应该是美的,除非上帝患有精神分裂症。所以无论做什么样的田野工作,我总是要转回头寻求一个数学上的美的解释来,这可能是强迫症的一种表现形式吧。

跳出对命题本身的争论,从进化论的角度来看,人对于数学形式美的直觉上的信任感究竟是如何演化而来的呢?是因为我们那些善于简单归纳的祖先得到了更多的生存机会吗?这个问题大概需要研究灵长类动物的生物人类学家来证明了。

10/21/2007

10/14/2007

MAÑANA

“Mañana,mañana”,这是说西班牙语的人嘴里常念叨的一个词,本意很简单,即“明天”,可是一旦说出来,它的含义可就不只是一个时间概念这么简单了。就好像传统相声段子里那个不管顾客问什么都回答“明天就会有”的商店经理一样,mañana更多的时候意味着“也许吧,谁知道呢”,不过这些隐藏在语言背后的文化内涵在标准词典里是未必能找得到的,对异域文化背景的来访者来说就更是无处捉摸了,所以当英国人奥威尔懵懵懂懂地跳进西班牙内战的战壕之时,才发现原来领袖们昨天许诺的来复枪不过是空头支票而已。

与时间有关的词汇总是能反应对应文化背景的社会节奏,比如说当初学德语的时候,头一个记住的抽象词汇就是pinktlich,即“准时”,因为德国人重视强调准时的重要性,早一点儿晚一点儿可不是小问题。而随着纬度的降低,好像时钟的准确性也跟着降低了,到了地中海国家那里,明天和后天就没什么区别了。至于那些穷乡僻壤或是世外桃源之地,世世代代不过从地头到炕头而已,日出日落加上公鸡打鸣就足够了,钟表实在多余,“不知有汉,无论魏晋”也就不奇怪了。于是在《马桥词典》里,马桥人对于历史上最重要的一九四八年的记录就是以诸如“长沙大会战那年”、“茂公当维持会长那年”或是“光复在龙家滩发蒙那年”一类模棱两可甚至是驴唇不对马嘴的方式加以描述的。

而今的城市生活节奏实在是快得叫人喘不上气来了,结婚买房子买车生孩子,样样都张着血盆大口催人赚钱,于是凡事总有闹钟警戒,睡觉睡到自然醒居然也成了现代人的美好梦想,不能不让人怀疑人类的生活是不是真的在走向幸福,抑或是在南辕北辙。于是在城乡之间往返,虽然不必倒时差,却要应付节奏差这个更严重的问题,好不容易才适应了山里人只分上午下午的时间观念,回到城里又要提速。罢了罢了,这回索性一慢到底,喝茶读书睡懒觉。有事?Mañana!其实快与慢的差别所在,倒也不是喝不喝茶、读不读书、睡不睡懒觉,而是一个生活态度问题,匆匆忙忙效率貌似提高了,质量却难保,积分起来未必多劳多得,反而滋生出许多以“忙”为由的冷冰冰的个人中心主义来,善良的撒玛利亚人是万万跟不上这样的生活节奏的,如此下去只怕世上再无马宗融了。前两年在做兼职编辑的时候推荐过SlowFood,如今意大利人又开始推广SlowCity的宜居城市标准,依此衡量,北京的宜居城市口号必然是痴人说梦了。

一代人来了,一代人走了,而太阳照常升起。何必用皮鞭驱赶迷人的朝阳。

10/12/2007

语言的进化

2007年10月10日出版的新一期Nature上的封面故事:

How 'holp' became 'helped'

The less often a word is said, the faster it will change over time, whereas more-often uttered words are resistant to change. In this week’s Nature, two groups publish analyses of this trend, which quantify it and compare it with biological evolution.
holp是古英语中help的过去式,现在当然已经没人再用了,但是很多最常用英文动词仍然保留着不规则变化(这也是令每一个初学者头痛的东西),比如be, say, do, go等等。就这一现象,美国和英国的两个小组各自经过独立研究得出了一致的结论,即越是不常用的词,进化的速度越快。这倒是与直觉一致,适者生存嘛,不常用的词自然容易被淘汰,大陆推行简体字不过五十年,除了没有被简化掉的那部分幸存者之外,前朝遗老们已经鲜有机会露面了。不过是不是能够就此推广为文化进化的一般规律呢?下定论可能还为时过早。

另外,更值得一提的是,这两个研究小组都是研究进化生物学的,其中没有一个人是语言学家。而且不出所料,其中之一就是Nowak实验室那帮不务正业的家伙,哈哈。

10/09/2007

纽约时报上的Nowak小传

In Games, an Insight Into the Rules of Evolution

节选开头一小段如下:

When Martin Nowak was in high school, his parents thought he would be a nice boy and become a doctor. But when he left for the University of Vienna, he abandoned medicine for something called biochemistry. As far as his parents could tell, it had something to do with yeast and fermenting. They became a little worried. When their son entered graduate school, they became even more worried. He announced that he was now studying games.

In the end, Dr. Nowak turned out all right. He is now the director of the Program for Evolutionary Dynamics atHarvard. The games were actually versatile mathematical models that Dr. Nowak could use to make important discoveries in fields as varied as economics and cancer biology.

“Martin has a passion for taking informal ideas that people like me find theoretically important and framing them as mathematical models,” said Steven Pinker, a Harvard linguist who is collaborating with Dr. Nowak to study the evolution of language. “He allows our intuitions about what leads to what to be put to a test.”

On the surface, Dr. Nowak’s many projects may seem randomly scattered across the sciences. But there is an underlying theme to his work. He wants to understand one of the most puzzling yet fundamental features of life: cooperation.

When biologists speak of cooperation, they speak more broadly than the rest of us. Cooperation is what happens when someone or something gets a benefit because someone or something else pays a cost. The benefit can take many forms, like money or reproductive success. A friend takes off work to pick you up from the hospital. A sterile worker bee tends to eggs in a hive. Even the cells in the human body cooperate. Rather than reproducing as fast as it can, each cell respects the needs of the body, helping to form the heart, the lungs or other vital organs. Even the genes in a genome cooperate, to bring an organism to life.

In recent papers, Dr. Nowak has argued that cooperation is one of the three basic principles of evolution. The other two are mutation and selection. On their own, mutation and selection can transform a species, giving rise to new traits like limbs and eyes. But cooperation is essential for life to evolve to a new level of organization. Single-celled protozoa had to cooperate to give rise to the first multicellular animals. Humans had to cooperate for complex societies to emerge.

“We see this principle everywhere in evolution where interesting things are happening,” Dr. Nowak said.

有人与我讨论Nature和Science上的文章到底好在哪儿,我说:要把简单的事情搞复杂了不难,要把复杂的东西弄简单了可不易。像Nowak这样把科学做成美学的人,不知道多少年出一个。

9/24/2007

知秋

行走于南国的山间,眼中的翠绿冲淡了晨霭的清冷,浑然不觉中秋已近。

默念起里尔克的诗句:
谁此时没有房子,就不必建造,
谁此时孤独,就永远孤独,
就醒来,读书,写长长的信,
在林荫路上不停地
徘徊,落叶纷飞。
却不知为何却难再提笔写那长长的信,更不知明晚故乡的月光能否穿透山谷的浓雾。

该收拾行囊回家了。


9/14/2007

我,和我的“他们”

在旅馆过夜,大梦一场。在梦中,我牵着祖父的手走在热闹的街市上,就如同二十年前一样,只不过这一次是我在领路:“爷,你看,这就是原来老徐家的点心铺,现在变成商场了……;爷,你看,这就是咱们原来住的小院,现在建成小区了,多漂亮……”

祖父中风以后已经瘫痪在床多年,气力一日不如一日,父亲要用轮椅推他出去走走,他不肯,我明白他的心思。今生也许只能在梦里陪她重走儿时的街巷了。

每个周末打电话给家里,却从来不知道该说些什么,而老人家听力也大不如前,听筒两端自说自话,这也便够了,本来也只为听到对方的声音而已。

今天偶然看到一套漫画,题曰“你,和你的他们”,颇有感触,做成幻灯片转摘如下:

8/21/2007

我和蜘蛛的自行车

不知从什么时候起,有一只蜘蛛在我的自行车上安了家,当然这个说法也许并不准确,因为我并不能确认究竟谁是这辆二手自行车更早的主人。既然是以我的视角来观察,就暂且把我的名字放在这件共有财产的前头吧,但愿她/他不会太介意。其实,对于我来说,自行车只是代步的工具,每天早晚在研究所与宿舍之间完成一次往返而已;剩余的全部时间,自行车归蜘蛛独享,尽情地织她/他的天罗地网。偶尔玩得有点儿过火,把车把都给裹上了,我不得不出手干涉一下,好在大多数日子里都相安无事,只在每天早晚道一声“Ciao”。突然在想,我每天机械重复的生活,在蜘蛛看来是不是比织网更加无聊呢?

过两天要又要去做田野工作了,临走时得叮嘱蜘蛛一句,让她/他帮忙织张大网,把我们的自行车罩起来,免得再被偷了。

8/02/2007

Spying on Others Evolves

ECONOMICS: Spying on Others Evolves -- Milinski and Rockenbach 317 (5837): 464 -- Science

When reputation is at stake, animals as well as humans switch from selfish to altruistic behavior, because only the latter is socially rewarded. But how do they assess whether their actions are observed? Recent investigations into human behavior have shown that subtle cues of being watched such as two stylized eye-like shapes on a computer screen background suffice to change behavior. A picture showing a pair of eyes attached to a cafeteria collection box significantly raises the donated amount compared to a flower symbol; in fact, the eyes were most effective when looking directly at the observer.

Although just ink on paper, these eye-shaped cues seem to elicit unconscious hard-wired reactions. Indeed, electrophysiological responses recorded from the scalp of normal subjects showed responses to isolated eyes that are even larger than the responses to full faces. Brain imaging studies in humans have also highlighted a role for the superior temporal sulcus (STS) and amygdala in gaze processing; the STS is likely to be essential for recognizing the eyes, head, and body as stimuli used in social communication, whereas the amygdala is likely to be essential for attaching social and emotional significance to these stimuli. Interestingly, even birds respond strongly to eye-like shapes, especially when two eyes are staring at them.

What is the benefit of watching someone? Spying on others seems widespread in animals and humans. By snooping on one another's social life, animals and humans can work out how to behave when they meet in the future. Recent experiments showed that even fish gain sophisticated information from watching members of the same species. Some fish can infer the social rank of others by observation alone and use this information to their own advantage in future encounters. So it comes as no surprise that both humans and animals try to deceive observers by behaving as they want to be seen by others to secure future gains.

For example, the cleaning wrasse fish grooms its client fish in the friendliest way when other clients watch, but without an audience it prefers to bite off pieces of its client's skin. In a dictator game experiment, only one player (the dictator) is endowed with money and may share it with a second player. Although unidentifiable human "dictators" share almost nothing, face-to-face identification increases the share rate to 50%. Consequently, in order to gain accurate information, observers should avoid being recognized: Indeed, some social birds have eyes concealed in dark areas or stripes, ensuring that the observed individual cannot detect being the target.

This is where humans differ from most animals. We have large white sclera on either side of the dark central iris when looking directly at the observer. This seems to be an honest signal of where we watch. Obviously there has been a net selective advantage of signaling the direction of our gaze in social interactions. However, having such eyes should be disadvantageous when trying to observe others' "unobserved" behavior, because we should take into account that the observed person turns altruistic as soon as our observing gaze is recognized.

Can we escape being watched? Whenever a person can be recognized by any cue, bad conduct may incur costs. Instead of behaving altruistically, people sometimes avoid having to justify their behavior by masking their faces, for example, at a masked ball, when robbing a bank, etc. Interestingly, the usual way to remove the identity of people on photos is to cover their eyes by a black stripe. Visual cues of faces seem to be of prime importance. Thus, either masking such cues or paying attention to being watched may be socially selected.

Figure 1 Are you being naughty or nice? Totem poles put up in villages in North America several hundred years ago standing vigilant at attention, with ever-watchful eyes. Unlike natural goats, the stylized goat has "human eyes" with white sclera stressing the direction of his gaze.

CREDIT: TONY J. PITCHER/UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA

Thus, a new dimension arises when issues of reputation are present in human social dilemmas. An "arms race" of hiding signals between observers and observed may result: Observer Alice should take into account that the behavior of Bob (the observed) changes and therefore should conceal her watching; Bob should be very alert to faint signals of being watched by Alice, but he should avoid any sign of having recognized Alice's watching when switching from selfish to altruistic behavior. He should avoid turning his gaze in the direction of the recognized observer. On the other hand, as soon as Alice sees that Bob has recognized that he is being observed, she should eventually not reward the observed altruistic behavior.

An arms race between observing and being observed has implications for the large body of recent research on human altruism. Observed altruistic behavior may often be less the expression of a personal trait than an optimal response to the faint feeling of being observed. Would altruism then function as a potential deceit? For example, what we expect for the efficient interaction between reputation and costly punishment in social dilemmas--where individual and social interests are at odds--might depend on the recognized state of the signaling arms race. When cues revealing that the observed person has discovered the observation are indeed so subtle that altruism is a successful deceit, the positive effects of reputation can be expected to be present to a much greater extent. However, when the observer can conceal his spying, reputation is subjectively not at stake and thus will not induce altruism.

Does the observer thus really want to see "unobserved" behavior? Yes, but only if the social partner interacts with the observer mostly anonymously and she profits from seeing his "normal" behavior and reacts accordingly. Otherwise she should try her best to generate the impression that her social partners always feel observed so that their "normal" behavior is altruistic. Perhaps this is achieved in some societies by the ever-present watchful eyes of totem poles (see the figure) or a god that "sees through everything." Even actors on billboards, a modern form of ink on paper, may elicit unconscious social reactions in our amygdala and thus influence our behavior.

7/29/2007

励志故事

在电视上看着伊拉克球员一个个红着眼睛在场上飞奔,不由得想起前些日子在电影院阴差阳错看的励志电影《重振球风》。不知为什么美国佬这么喜欢励志题材,非搞到烂大街不可,就算是山珍海味吃多了也腻人,更何况大多是远离生活的做作煽情,看多了的副作用就是把感动丢了,也越来越不相信“有志者事竟成”的口号。没想到这一回伊拉克人还真的表演了一场现实版的励志故事,自从市场化改革把咱中国足球最后的一点儿拼搏精神也彻底革掉了以后,我还以为今后的足球就只能是金钱运动了,看来我又以小人之心度君子之腹了。看来战火纷飞、朝不保夕的生活环境还真是磨练人的意志,干脆甭花冤大头钱去请教练,直接把国足发配到伊拉克集训一年算了,保证立竿见影。

祝贺伊拉克兄弟夺冠的同时也祝愿他们国内别再丢炸弹庆祝胜利了,和平总比荣誉实在得多。

7/21/2007

Google Earth's Downside

I appreciate google earth's idea very much. However, like any technology, it may have its unexpected downside. Below is a fictional account for what can go wrong when people are able to spy on one another using google's satellite imagery. Video by Scott Blaszak.

Of course, it's nothing more than a bad joke. Take it easy.

7/13/2007

关于地铁

俗话说入乡随俗,在山里的时候像野人一样,进城以后立马摆渡回标准现代市民的状态。每天上上网,每周看看电影,周末泡一天图书馆,不亦乐乎。不过最能够体验城市归属感的地方,还是地铁站。

今天计划失误,正赶上下班时间去坐地铁,又恰好是周末,西直门站入口处寸步难行。可能是出于减缓人流的考虑,入口搞成了大Z字形,不过这要是队伍里出点儿什么意外,恐怕除了互相践踏也不可能有第二种选择了。站台上的安全隐患也不小,轨道旁没有任何防护措施,再加上排队意识不强,万一有人不慎坠入,后果不堪设想,也难怪上海过来的朋友会抱怨。但愿不要被我乌鸦。

在站台上候车的时候,留意了一下人流的分布,很有意思。你一般会选择哪一部分的车厢呢?我会往站台中间走,那里一般都是人最少的区域(有些站由于入口位置的差异,会出现一端人少的情况),尽管有时候广播会提醒中间人少,不过多数人还是倾向于就近等候。这样的累计结果就是人少的车厢的总是人少,人多的车厢总是人多。原因大概有两点:首先是图方便,当然也包括列车进站以后才匆匆赶到的慌不择路的乘客;更重要的一点是,多数人的假设是候车人流是均匀分布的,所以在哪里等都一样。显然第二条的假设是与第一条的现实情况相矛盾的,所以才会出现分布不均匀的情况。那么如果有多数的人估计到中间人少这一倾向之后,又会怎么样呢?那中间就会出现一个高峰,两端的人减少,这一回准确的预测应该是多数人会预测多数人在两端候车,所以首选方案又变成了两端候车。如果你的预测是多数人会预测多数人会预测多数人在两端候车(绕口令……),那么你的选择就该是中间候车。如此反复,就看你的预期和多数人的计算次数之间的差距了,也就是看你对多数人心理的估计准确性。

当然上面这个例子是不会收敛的,但就算是会收敛的也不意味着计算的步骤越多就越有利。比方说做个简单的游戏,要一组人每人选一个100以内的正整数来估计整体平均数的一半,最贴近者为胜。显然这是一个收敛的数列,极限是0,但是如果随便找些人来做这个游戏的话,最终优胜者的答案往往会比0大很多。这是因为获胜的关键并不是自己计算多少步,而是估计别人的计算,更准确的说是估计别人对别人的估计。一般情况下,多数人的计算是不会超过三步的,所以高估别人并不会比低估别人更有利。

玩金融的人应该对这一点体会深刻,不管是股票、期货还是赌球赌马,除了要对押注对象本身的情况有比较准确的估计之外,很重要,其实是更重要的一点,是对身边其他下注者的估计。赚钱的要诀在于比多数人领先一步,记住,只能领先一步,太过聪明的结果就和不聪明没什么两样了。换句话说,你不需要知道东西本身是好是坏,只要知道它在多数人眼里是好是坏就行了。操控股市期货交易或者赌博公司的人更是精于此道,所以赌博公司对总统大选结果的预测向来要比民意调查可靠得多,真正精于赌球的人也都是不看球的人,他们只要能读懂赔率就行了。盖尔曼有个做统计物理的同事下海赌马赚了钱,其实他对马一窍不通,他就只是在比赛前去看一看赔率,然后计算一下投注。可惜目前还占据主流地位的新古典主义经济学家们完全无视这一点,他们总是把人想像成绝对理性的,可实际情况差得远,所以他们提出的理论最佳预期常常引导政府把事情搞得一团糟。

好不容易从地铁里挤出来,急匆匆跑到塞万提斯学院,没想到他们居然放错了片子……千算万算,没算到这帮西班牙人办事情这样马马虎虎,唉。

7/08/2007

Curtis的宝藏

"...when the last red man shall have perished, and the memory of my tribe shall become a myth of the white men, these shores will swarm with the invisible dead of my tribe; and when our children's children think they are alone in the field, the store, the shop, upon the highway, or the pathless woods, they will not be alone."
--Chief Seattle

Edward Curtis,一个出生在威斯康星的只有六年文凭的年轻摄影师,在1898年偶遇一队迷途的登山者,因而结识著名人类学者George Bird Grinnell,从此与北美印第安人结下不解之缘,他的人生走上了一条极其不平凡的道路。

在跟随Grinnell走访印第安部落的过程中,Curtis开始意识到印第安文明正在走向衰亡,因此他做出了一个惊人得近乎疯狂的决定——走遍北美洲,把印第安文化完整地记录下来。幸而他得到了西奥多罗斯福总统的支持与大富豪Morgen的捐助,不过他严重低估了他将要开启的这项伟大工程的规模,包括所需要的金钱、时间与精力。Curtis的预算是花费25万美元,用5到6年时间完成这项工作,然而事实上这两个数字是150万和30年。当然,从一个旁观者的角度来说,如果当时他意识到这样的困难,也许今天我们就不会有机会从铅字与银版上辨认出这些失落的文明。

"The passing of every old man or woman means the passing of some tradition, some knowledge of sacred rites possessed by no other; consequently the information that is to be gathered, for the benefit of future generations, respecting the mode of life of one of the great races of mankind, must be collected at once or the opportunity will be lost for all time." 这是Curtis在一百年前的预言。他不幸言中了。

历史总是无情地嘲弄人类的智慧,先知总会因泄露天机而受到神灵的惩罚。在这项工作的后半段时间里,Curtis失去了资助,失去了出版商,失去了家庭,也失去 了健康,支撑他继续踽踽独行的就只是他对印第安文明的深深依恋,他实际上已经从白人世界挣脱而义无反顾地投入了印第安文明的怀抱。当Curtis于一贫如 洗中悄无声息地离开人世的时候,留在身后的只有被掩藏在图书馆阁楼灰尘中的二十卷北美印第安民族志,涉及当时几乎全北美洲各印第安部落文化的所有方面,其中还包括超过2000张珍贵的极高质量的记录照片。

当“文明世界”突然意识到Curtis宝藏的价值时,一切已成往事。马背上印第安武士孤独坚毅的目光已然被轰鸣的发动机和闪烁的霓虹所取代,掠夺性的现代文明是不是也将在不久的未来随曾经的印第安文明一同逝去呢?当我们从古老的伊洛魁族印第安人盟约中发掘出“可持续性”的概念时,却不得不面对这样一个悖论:一个放眼未来的文明必须放慢它的脚步以便于与自然的节奏同步,而这样的文明却注定要在与高速膨胀的狭隘文明的竞争中败下阵来。一个属于全人类的tragedy of the commons,这是人类文明注定的命运吗?
"Out of the Indian approach to life there came a great freedom -- an intense and absorbing love for nature; a respect for life; enriching faith in a Supreme Power; and principles of truth, honesty, generosity, equity, and brotherhood as a guide to mundane relations."
-- Luthor Standing Bear, Oglala Sioux Chief

也许在Curtis的宝藏中,还能找到老酋长留下的希望的种子。

7/03/2007

Tit for Tat

Tit for tat,中文最常见的翻译为“以牙还牙”,据说是从tip for tap衍生过来的,总之就是投桃报李、锱铢必较,当年在Sigmund的Games of Life上第一次认识这个词,今天在豆瓣上又有人提到它,一时兴起,不妨就这个话题多说两句。

Tit for tat之所以出名,大概主要是源于几十年前的两场比赛。那可不是一般的比赛,而是对策竞争,组织者(好像是一个美国报社编辑,记得不是很清楚了)邀请了当时世界上许多研究博弈论或者进化理论的主要学者,参赛者每人提出一个博弈对策作为他的选手上场比赛,比赛的规则极其简单,大体上就跟现在的足球联赛差不多,两两对决打一个大循环,然后统计最终积分。结果先后两次比赛的胜出者都是tit for tat这个及其简单的对策,具体规则就两条:第一步,选择合作(给定初值);第二步,模仿上对手的上一次出牌。别看它简单,在两场比赛中都是进化稳定对策,因而名噪一时。

选择tit for tat的好处在于你永远不会吃亏,举个生活中的例子:一大早迈进电梯间,里面有一个陌生人,你冲他/她微笑一下,如果他/她还你一个微笑,你一定会把微笑传递下去,一天的好心情;如果对方不领情白你一眼,也不能吃哑巴亏,毫不犹豫马上还他/她一个白眼,就算扯平了。不过金无足赤,这个对策也有其缺陷,就是容错能力极低。还举电梯的例子,如果对方白你一眼,接着你就以牙还牙,以后再见面就甭指望有笑脸了,说不定人家只是碰巧刚刚跟老婆/老公吵了架,其实并无恶意呢,万一后来不幸发现他/她是你的新邻居/同事,那就更惨了。中国有句老话叫“冤家宜解不宜结”,何不宽容一点儿呢?于是就诞生了改进版的tit for tat,更确切地讲应该叫做宽容版的以牙还牙(Generous tit for tat),容许对方出现少量的error,换句话说就是睁一眼闭一眼。

当然了,故事到这里也还远没有结束,无论是tit for tat还是generous tit for tat都不是无敌的,比如后来"win-stay, lose-shift"就把tit for tat给挤掉了。这个新武林盟主的逻辑也很简单,顾名思义,如果前一步的对策成功了,下一步就继续坚持;反之就换。

这些学者之所以会如此热衷于这些简单的小游戏,当然绝不单单是由于好玩,其实不难发现,无论是tit for tat还是win-stay, lose-shift,都是从我们最常用的基本心理逻辑。前者大体上可能源自于自我防御机制,也就是我们常说的“党同伐异”,凡是看上去是赞同自己的一律无条件支持,凡是对自己有异议的,二话不说先一棒子打倒再说,如此这般,便结成了水火不容的各门各派,到后来忙着维护名誉且自顾不暇,就更不得不把理智丢在一边了。Chris Argyris把这种症状称为习惯性防卫,并将其归为组织健康发展的头号障碍。至于后者么,大概就是简单的试错逻辑,反正本人修理一切设备的时候基本全靠这一招,效果一直不错,不过这个对策仅适用于简单、低风险、近似线性的问题,更复杂的问题就需要更好的优化方法来解决了。生物的进化也是这样一个试错的过程,所以遇到气候剧变之类的情况发生,也就免不了要遭遇大灭绝。

Tit for tat还有一个突出的意义在于研究社会的形成和进化。人类的利他性社会行为可以在基于tit-for-tat的简单模型上得到一个比较可信的解释,说到这里又想起Nowak的新书,也不知国图几时能进得来。

耐心一点儿,宽容一点儿。

7/01/2007

法国的社会医疗系统

原中科院的副院长陈竺刚刚调任卫生部部长,其无党籍与科研背景都颇为引人关注。在国务院调查报告认定原医疗改革失败的情况之下,新的社会医疗改革方案一直难产,新的部长能带来新的希望吗?我们还需拭目以待。

社会医疗体系在任何一个国家都是关乎最基本民生的社会支柱,因此对于任何一个负责任的政府,保证每一个公民的基本医疗福利都应当是头等大事。不久前美国导演Michael Moore又推出了一部新的纪录片《Sicko》,镜头对准的正是这一话题。他在片中极力推崇法国的社会医疗体系,那么这究竟是怎样的一套系统呢?以下是刊登在《商业周刊(BusinessWeek)》上的一篇相关报道,也许可以从中得到一些启示:

'BETTER RESULTS FOR LESS MONEY'

The French Lesson in Health Care

By Kerry Capell

The nation's system isn't quite as superb as Sicko maintains, but it's pretty good.

Michael Moore's documentarySicko trumpets France as one of the most effective providers of universal health care. His conclusions and fist-in-your-gut approach may drive some Americans up the wall. But whatever you think of Moore, the French system -- a complex mix of private and public financing -- offers valuable lessons for would-be health-care reformers in the US.

In Sicko, Moore lumps France in with the socialized systems of Britain, Canada, and Cuba. In fact, the French system is similar enough to the US model that reforms based on France's experience might work in America. The French can choose their doctors and see any specialist they want. Doctors in France, many of whom are self-employed, are free to prescribe any care they deem medically necessary. "The French approach suggests it is possible to solve the problem of financing universal coverage...[without] reorganizing the entire system," says Victor G. Rodwin, professor of health policy and management at New York University.

France also demonstrates that you can deliver stellar results with this mix of public and private financing. In a recent World Health Organization health-care ranking, France came in first, while the US scored 37th, slightly better than Cuba and one notch above Slovenia. France's infant death rate is 3.9 per 1,000 live births, compared with 7 in the US, and average life expectancy is 79.4 years, two years more than in the US. The country has far more hospital beds and doctors per capita than America, and far lower rates of death from diabetes and heart disease. The difference in deaths from respiratory disease, an often preventable form of mortality, is particularly striking: 31.2 per 100,000 people in France, vs. 61.5 per 100,000 in the US.

That's not to say the French have solved all health-care riddles. Like every other nation, France is wrestling with runaway health-care inflation. That has led to some hefty tax hikes, and France is now considering US-style health-maintenance organization tactics to rein in costs. Still, some 65 percent of French citizens express satisfaction with their system, compared with 40 percent of US residents. And France spends just 10.7 percent of its gross domestic product on health care, while the US lays out 16 percent, more than any other nation.

To grasp how the French system works, think about Medicare for the elderly in the US, then expand that to encompass the entire population. French medicine is based on a widely held value that the healthy should pay for care of the sick. Everyone has access to the same basic coverage through national insurance funds, to which every employer and employee contributes. The government picks up the tab for the unemployed who cannot gain coverage through a family member.

SAFETY NET

But the french system is much more generous to its entire population than the US is to its seniors. Unlike with Medicare, there are no deductibles, just modest co- payments that are dismissed for the chronically ill. Additionally, almost all French buy supplemental insurance, similar to Medigap, which reduces their out-of-pocket costs and covers extra expenses such as private hospital rooms, eyeglasses, and dental care.

In France, the sicker you get, the less you pay. Chronic diseases, such as diabetes, and critical surgeries, such as a coronary bypass, are reimbursed at 100 percent. Cancer patients are treated free of charge. Patients suffering from colon cancer, for instance, can receive Genentech Inc.'s (DNA) Avastin without charge. In the US, a patient may pay $48,000 a year.

France particularly excels in prenatal and early childhood care. Since 1945 the country has built a widespread network of thousands of health-care facilities, called Protection Maternelle et Infantile (PMI), to ensure that every mother and child in the country receives basic preventive care. Children are evaluated by a team of private-practice pediatricians, nurses, midwives, psychologists, and social workers. When parents fail to bring their children in for regular checkups, social workers are dispatched to the family home. Mothers even receive a financial incentive for attending their pre- and post-natal visits.

A typical PMI can be found in Goutte d'Or, a poor neighborhood at the foot of Montmartre that has been home for the past 20 years to a swelling population of immigrants from Africa and Southeast Asia. On Rue Cavé, a tidy modern building is given over entirely to caring for expecting mothers, infants, and young children. The place usually is bustling with kids scrambling over toys, while mothers, often immigrants in colorful headdresses and with babies strapped to their backs, talk to their doctors as part of twice-monthly evaluations.

PMI and other such programs are starting to get attention in U.S. health-care circles. "If we really want to ensure that no child is left behind, then the PMI system is a good way to do it," says Daniel J. Pedersen, president of the Buffett Early Childhood Fund. "It's based on the practical idea that high-quality investments made at the start of a child's life will pay huge dividends to both the child and society in the future."

To make all this affordable, France reimburses its doctors at a far lower rate than US physicians would accept. However, French doctors don't have to pay back their crushing student loans because medical school is paid for by the state, and malpractice insurance premiums are a tiny fraction of the $55,000 a year and up that many US doctors pay. That $55,000 equals the average yearly net income for French doctors, a third of what their American counterparts earn. Then again, the French government pays two-thirds of the social security tax for most French physicians -- a tax that's typically 40 percent of income.

Specialists who have spent at least four years practicing in a hospital are free to charge what they want, and some charge upwards of $675 for a single consultation. But American-style compensation is rare. "There is an unspoken and undefined limit to what you can charge," says Dr. Paul Benfredj, a gastroenterologist in Paris.

Many French doctors, in fact, earn more by increasing their patient load, or by prescribing more diagnostic tests and procedures -- a technique, also popular in the US, that inflates health-care costs. So far France has been able to hold down the burden on patients through a combination of price controls and increased government spending, but the latter effort has led to higher taxes for both employers and workers. In 1990, 7 percent of health-care expenditures were financed out of general revenue taxes, and the rest came from mandatory payroll taxes. By 2003, the general revenue figure had grown to 40 percent, and it's still not enough. The French national insurance system has been running constant deficits since 1985 and has ballooned to $13.5 billion.

That's why France is gearing up to make changes. It already requires patients to register with a general practitioner before visiting a specialist, or else agree to a lesser reimbursement, much like many US insurance plans. But France isn't likely to make major changes to a system most citizens say they like. Why would they? Says Shanny Peer, policy director at the independent French-American Foundation: "France gets better results for less money and everyone is covered."

值得一提的是,本文中提到的世界卫生组织公布的医疗系统排名中,中国位列144,仅次于非洲战乱频发的布隆迪。附链接:http://www.photius.com/rankings/healthranks.html

悼杨德昌君

刚刚得知台湾导演杨德昌过世的消息,不由得回想起一个人坐在空空荡荡的礼堂看《一一》的那个夜晚。似乎是十一或是五一的假日,研究生院免费放电影,所有片子中,我单单选中了这一部。观众并不出人意料地寥寥,放映前还有一位负责的同学特别提醒大家这是一部冗长的大闷片,于是观众更见其少,更不知有几人是认真地看完了整部,反正对于身边这些研究生们的文化欣赏水平,我是不敢做过高期望的。

这是一个幸运的选择。有些艺术作品如同一壶老酒,总需细细品味,慢慢咂摸,舌头才能渐渐探触其中的滋味。我曾用这样的话评价小津先生的电影,如今又要用它来怀念杨德昌君和他的《一一》。

听说君特格拉斯那边曾一度闹得沸沸扬扬的自传名字叫做《剥洋葱》,我没有读过,自然不敢断章取义,不过还是想借这个名字做一个比喻。“一一”两个字竖着列在一起变成了二,正所谓“一生二,二生三,三生万物”,整部片子就是由一桩桩婚丧嫁娶之类老友男女的生活琐事罗列而成,繁冗拖沓,亦无太多戏剧性可言,而这恰恰就是最真实的生活。我们常常试图探寻生活的真谛,然而就像一个顽童一层层剥开洋葱的外皮,里面却总还是同样一层皮,即便剥个干净,最终还是找不到想象中的果实,怏怏离去,丢下一地的洋葱皮。有一天他会明白,其实洋葱,就是一层层的洋葱皮。

真实的生活,人们视而不见,却陷于现代都市营造的幻想。于是杨德昌借无忌之童言说出:“你看不到的,我帮你拍下来给你看。”

静静地注视着杨导剥开他的洋葱,眼里噙着泪水,心里念着洋葱的味道。

愿杨导一路走好。

6/30/2007

始终有你

香港回归十周年,中央高度重视,好一番煞费苦心大操大办。不过给我留下较深印象的倒是那句“香港始终有你”。张学良将军年轻时听人演讲“中国不亡有我”,德国人鼓励公众投票时讲“Du bist Deutschland(你就是德国)”,大抵都是同样的意思。“天下兴亡,匹夫有责”,公众的社会自然要靠每个人来建造,重要的不是xx的领导,而是你的参与。

香港人这个擦边球打得蛮聪明的。

6/29/2007

Rich and Poor



Jim Goldberg's photographs of rich and poor Americans in the late 1970s to mid-1980s, with the subjects' own handwritten comments about themselves on the prints, give us an inside look at the American dream at both ends of the social scale. His pictures reveal his subjects' fears and aspirations and their perceptions and illusions about themselves with a frankness that makes the portraits as engrossing as they are disturbing. (Note: The captions are taken from the subjects’ notes in the photos. Therefore, not all punctuation, grammar, and/or spelling is accurate.)

6/22/2007

别人的生活

闲事莫管,吃饭三碗”——中国民谚

一说起西部山区,总是不免联想起田垄间“不知有汉,无论魏晋”的穷乡僻壤,然而今时已不比昨日,稍微富裕一点儿的地方已经是“锅盖”林立,慢说北京的消息,就是半岛电视台也清晰得很。于是每天工作下来人困马乏之后,最大的享受就是能赶在晚上11点钟之前趴在电视机前边静候凤凰卫视的编辑吕宁思出场。再后来,就听说了山西洪洞县黑砖窑事件。

此事曝光之后,众媒体顿时义愤填膺,纷纷不吝篇幅对“黑心窑主”口诛笔伐,向受害者泼洒同情与怜悯,然而除此之外,最多不过间或有三两句抨击地方政府或者批评监督不力的老生常谈。如今矿主打手皆已伏法,生活又回归原初的风平浪静,一切如故。

若论官商勾结利欲熏心,小小砖窑不过是沧海之一粟;相比之下,更具悲凉意味的是当地村民的集体冷漠。砖窑几年来一直就在村支书的家门口,而村民竟皆称“不知此事”。实在不能不令人联想起“玉堂春”的那一句:“洪洞县里无好人”。

何谓“好人”?正巧刚刚看过德国影片《别人的生活》,脑子里还回响着“好人奏鸣曲”(Sonata for a good man)的绕梁余韵,在片子的结尾Dreyman把他的新书命名为“好人奏鸣曲”,同时也就是为他心目中的“好人”下了一个定义。尽管东西方文化之间存在着不小的差异,但似乎在对“好人”的认同上大家的观点基本一致:所谓好人,即关心别人并无私帮助别人者。当年宣传学习雷锋的时候我们高唱“毫不利己,专门利人”,这个要求确实有一点儿高得不切实际了,但是要做一个好人,首先一个前提是眼里和心里要有“别人的生活”,这一点还是不会错的。当然这个“别人”要涵盖所有人,包括任何素昧平生者,结党营私自然算不得好人。

不过做好人总是要付出些代价的,Wielser为了保护Dreyman丢掉了工作还算幸运,救人反被讹诈的也屡见不鲜。所以“理智者”的格言是“各人自扫门前雪,莫管他人瓦上霜”,雷锋是傻子,这已是公认的准则。相映成趣的却是崇尚“路见不平拔刀相助”的武侠文化的流行,不过如果仔细看看,这里面基本上只剩下了“武”,“侠”早就不知去向了。

当然,好人文化的形成也定然有其内在的缘由,也就是其进化的选择压力。在基于血缘和地缘关系而结成的传统社会中,社会的关系网络稠密而固定(在今天中国西部交通闭塞的农村地区仍然部分留有这样的特点),做一个好人虽然会造成短期的个人损失,但是却能够带来长期的较高声望,所以对山里人的热情好客不必惊奇。与之相对的是,在一个高度流动性的社会(大多数现代都市),或者人人自危的环境里(比如东德,前苏联,还有咱们的文革时期),好人所能得到的社会回报微乎其微,所以尽管每个人都希望自己被好人所包围,但是每个人都不情愿自己做一个好人,于是好人这个物种就要无可挽回地走向灭绝了。

至于洪洞县的情况,虽然悲哀,却也并不意外。由于近年来能源紧张引发的煤炭行情高涨,煤炭大省山西自然首当其冲受到外部市场的强烈冲击。投机者的一夜暴富以及地方政府大力支持造成的社会影响都是不可低估的,于是先是煤窑,后是砖窑,都在不停地大口吞噬着脆弱无辜的生命以及社会的良知。我不知道社会文化观念的转变到底能有多快,也不了解洪洞县的历史情况,但是这一事件确实加重了我的担忧:我们的社会弹性似乎并不足以抵御市场经济特别是全球化趋势的影响,而我们距离另一个理想的公民社会似乎又颇有一段路要走,在这中间,每个人都要怀揣着一颗惴惴不安的心孤独前行吗?

"No man is an island." -- John Donne

6/21/2007

Back, and forth

After two months' fieldwork only intercepted by the EcoSummit, I'm back. I think I've got something new from Tim this time -- the philosophy of a humanist. Sustainability, the trade-off between conservation and development cannot be the product of ecology, biology, economics, or sociology, but the integration of all disciplines, and beyond the boundary of disciplines or even science. The future depends on "what you water your dream with".

I'm back, and forth.

5/31/2007

熊猫之死

偶然在电视新闻里得知“祥祥”的死讯,凑巧此时我正身在卧龙。

对于饲养员和跟踪研究人员来说,遗憾与伤心自然是可以理解的;外界的反应如何,我一无所知;对我个人而言,这个消息并不值得惊讶,何况还是一个严重迟到的消息。动物的野化和放归属于科学实验,所以无论成败,都属于正常的实验结果,正像传说中爱迪生发明灯泡的经历一样,最后成功源自于前面3000次的失败。祥祥的死亡在一定程度上暗示了多年来的人工繁育和圈养的确使得熊猫部分失去了自然条件下的生存能力,当然,这究竟是基因水平上的退化还是行为发育水平上的影响还需要进一步的研究,但就科学价值而言,野化实验的这一次失败来得正当其时。

正在令人惊奇和不解的是,新闻中明确指出祥祥的尸体被发现是在2月19日,那么为何要延迟至今才对外透露?总不会也同矿难事件一样想瞒天过海吧?其实上个月我在与保护区内部人员的一次交谈中就已经对此事有所察觉,当时对方欲言又止,令人疑惑。抱歉,我实在想不出隐瞒一次普通科学实验结果的动机何在,倘是军事机密也就罢了,可是熊猫野化有什么可保密的呢?左思右想,也只能向熊猫背后的政治意义延伸。

由于种种原因,熊猫这种普通的哺乳动物被赋予了太多的政治内涵,以至于远远超出了其本身的生物学意义:国家层面上,它俨然已经成为了中国外交的形象大使,从这种意义上来讲,说团团圆圆是打入台湾内部的大陆特工倒也不全是无理取闹;地方层面上,熊猫一直是卧龙特区的立身之本,4000多老百姓确有近千人的管理局,若不是国宝支撑,怎么可能。

长期以来,卧龙自然保护区以及熊猫研究中心的工作重点并非野生动物的原位保护,而是熊猫的人工繁殖,数量上倒也确实成绩斐然,每年新增10-20只小宝宝,成活率超过90%,以至于到了“熊满为患”的程度,不得不另建新园。至于人工繁殖的质量,则一直是一个讳莫如深的话题,连续的近亲繁殖再加上与终生世隔绝的铁笼生活,这些国宝的种群质量不能不令人担忧。于是在迟到了数十年之后,年轻力壮的“祥祥”走出牢笼,它不仅仅要接受陌生的自然环境的严酷挑战,更背负着庞大的人工繁育种群的命运,还有中国人民特别是相关负责人员的殷切希望,实可谓重任在肩,只许胜不可败。然而现实只认可自然规律,根本不近人情,在野化实验的第一个冬天,“祥祥”并不出人意料地出了“意外”。观测人员在雪地里发现了遍体鳞伤奄奄一息的祥祥,显然它是在与同类的争斗中败下阵来了。一般来说,动物行为研究的基本原则是人为干预的最小化,虽然有时候眼睁睁地看着一只动物死去确实显得有些残忍,但为了整个种群乃至整个生态系统的健康发展,也为了科学的客观性,这一点是非常必要的。不过出于种种原因,熊猫研究中心不但救活了祥祥,还在它恢复之后将其放归,也许是寄希望于这一次仅仅是一个意外。然而在不久之后,这个希望就遭到了更为沉重的打击。

祥祥的死到底能说明什么?从科学上来讲,现在还言之过早。要证明笼养熊猫的野外生存能力,一个样本的实验显然是不够的,还需要更好的实验设计,更多的野化个体以及对照观测,这决不是一朝一夕能够完成的工作,好在新的工作已经开始起步。更多的顾虑来自于政治层面,相关部门担心公众的误读,更担心上级部门对自己工作成绩的否定,这些顾虑使得熊猫之死变得扑朔迷离,科学也总是这样受到政治的羁绊。不过话又说回来,与其说熊猫是一种野生动物倒不如称之为政治动物更为妥当,就像一个街头青年突然摇身一变成了演艺明星,整个的个人价值体系彻底颠倒,在熊猫身上坚持理想主义的动物保护,也确实有一点儿自欺欺人的味道了。

总之,这一次还算好,只是延迟,至少没有说谎。

5/28/2007

道别

来去匆匆,只好在这里向朋友们致谦,很多许诺都未能兑现,特别是未能与远道而来的海涛和海成相见,很是遗憾。

看来今后这样颠沛流离的生活要成为常态了,如俺老爹所言:“年轻的时候就该忙点儿”。

临行前终于咬牙买下心仪已久的漫画集《我在伊朗长大》,山谷寂静的夜晚慢慢翻读,疲倦与清冷一扫而空。

与Tim再度合作,一如既往的笑声中明确意识到自己的头脑在走向成熟——也许真的足够老了。

Wave~

5/26/2007

踢皮球

都说中国人不会踢球,实在是天大的冤枉。我看咱们官僚踢皮球的本事绝对不逊于巴西。

以往都是扮演球的角色,倒也习以为常了。今天突然接到命令紧急扮演球员角色,第一次上场,还真是颇不适应,一天下来,受煎熬的程度比皮球也好不了多少。

具体经过不便透露,总之皮球同志实在也只能怪运气不济。就像上访的群众一样,你也很难说里面有没有“刁民”,但是不管怎么说也总得有个人给个正式说法吧。理论上讲,就算球门再小,只要努力也总有进球的可能,问题是球队的教练压根就不希望进球,场上队员的责任就是不停地开大脚,直到踢出控制范围为止。既不费力,又不得罪人,两全其美的妙计,踢皮球大概是官场入门的必修课吧。

身心具疲,我不干了,回家卖红薯去!

5/24/2007

一米线

“一米线”在中国的大多数城市里都已经是司空见惯的东西了,司空见惯到大家熟视无睹的程度。不过直到最近一次在首都机场乘飞机的时候,我才注意到安检入口处立着几块醒目的说明,专门对“一米线”的来历做了个解释:一米线是从西方开始出现的,有科学家研究发现,一米的距离是人与人之间最舒服的安全距离……

看完这个,眼前第一个浮现出的就是从前在Magnum看到的一张民国时期上海人在银行门口排队领黄金的照片(因通货膨胀严重,银行不得不向个人发放配额黄金),人与人之间的距离嘛,用个时髦的词汇,那叫“零距离接触”,最后有4个人被活活挤死。现在有了一米线又如何呢?不管是在银行还是在收款台,只要排队的人数超过三个,相邻两人距离超过30cm,瞬间就会有人插进来,所以你要是真的坚持老老实实等在一米线之外的话,那大概确实要等到花儿也谢了,当然,如果你是身高2米体格壮硕面带杀气的超级猛男除外。

我在抱怨吗?不不不,我只是在陈述一个事实而已,而且我也早就已经习惯了,并开始明白这其实是社会文化的一部分。中国是一个有着十几亿人口的国家,在不久以前,我们的人均居住面积还少得可怜,三代同堂挤在十几平米的小屋里并不是什么丢人的事情,当然个人隐私也就没那么多讲究了。所以排队的时候当然也要注意节约空间,或者干脆也不必那么多讲究了,大家挤在一起“公平竞争”吧。春节那会儿听说为了迎奥运北京还组织公交排队,真是可笑,结果不出所料,不出俩月,又一切照旧了。我没去过香港,听说香港人在那边排队是很自觉的,但是一旦过了罗湖口岸之后就跟内地人没有两样了,看来他们也并不是从心底里对个人空间有太高的要求的。

当然,对个人空间的要求也是根据物质生活水平发生变化的。现在一部分人的收入水平显著提高了,对空间的要求提高一点也是正常。不过在公共空间里,大家都是平等的,如果没有那么多资源可供分配,那你也只能忍着点儿。我上大学的时候有一次参加xx代表的讨论会(那也是最后一次跟官僚体系合作的经历),居然有一个代表用个人安全感为理由维护一人占多座位的合理性,当时真想把书包扔到他脸上去。那会清华的自习教室何其紧张,一人一个座都抢不到,还讲究个屁个人安全感,我不管你是什么富家子弟,要怕不安全,回家躲着去好了。

说实话,我也不喜欢取钱的时候身后有个人贴着的那种如芒在背的感觉,所以对于一米线的出现,我是举双手赞成的。但是大可不必因为西方人用了一米线就非说中国人也最适合一米的距离,同样,排队也好,遵守交规也好,社会文化的东西,总要有个缓慢的过渡过程,条件成熟了自然就水到渠成了,这可不是靠红头文件和严打能够实现的。

诚然像新加坡那样靠严格管理维护秩序的“成功”案例也不是没有,但是如果多数新加坡人并不喜欢这样严苛的法律的话,我想这样的成功也并不是一个值得学习的榜样。谁会喜欢生活在一个处处有“电屏”被老大哥监视的社会环境中呢?所谓自觉,还是要靠自己觉悟才行。

5/21/2007

'Second Nature' online

The Nature magazine in the online role-play game? Oh, I must be crazy... But it is!

A Natural Fit: For Science Journal, Web Is 'Second Nature' - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

By Hilmar Schmundt

Nature, the world's best-known scientific publication, is now being transformed into a multimedia platform that includes include blogs, podcasts and even a Second Life presence.

Nature's presence on Second Life: As shocking as the Queen moving to Las Vegas

Timo Twin wanders along a beach looking slightly confused, then zigzags up a nearby hill. "Finally! I knew it was here somewhere," he says. Across a vast square the logo of his company, Nature, is emblazoned in big white letters on a red background.

Twin has arrived in his new realm, on an island in the online role-playing game Second Life. The name of the island is fitting: Second Nature. The avatar bears only a vague resemblance to the real-life Timo, a tall man in his late 30s with a slightly round, Harry Potter-like face. His real name is Timo Hannay, and he is something like the representative of the scientific journal Nature in the virtual world.

...now this bastion of academic high culture is developing a presence in a bustling game world? It's about as shocking as the news would be if the Queen of England were to announce that she was packing up and moving to Las Vegas.

5/19/2007

Billy & Milan

昨天的圣西罗球场属于一个人,他的名字是Alessandro Costacurta,也就是我们熟悉的老Billy。


20年前身披同一件球衣在同一块场地上首度登场,从此开始一段红黑色的传奇,米兰5号——没错,就是那个当年曾经在丰田杯上被小水牛戏耍的5号,就是那个曾经一度沉沦的5号——但是,挫折无法屈服铁汉的脊梁,当我看到Billy以40岁高龄在欧冠赛场上安若磐石的防守时,当我看到Billy是如何将闹意见的队友加图索像拎小猫一样拎下场时,我才真正理解Milan的足球哲学。

下半时,米兰获得一个点球机会,正如大家所期待的一样,老Billy走向点球点。

一蹴而就!Billy打进职业生涯第三球,也是最后一球。

一分钟后,41岁的Billy被18岁的Di Gennaro换下,全场球迷起立致敬。一个20年的传奇,41岁的米兰5号,终于走到了职业生涯的终点,哦,不,应该是转折点,在24日凌晨的雅典,我们会看到身着西装的Billy依旧坐在安切洛蒂的身边,就如同20年前一样。从现在起,我们要称其为教练员Billy了。

谢谢你,Billy,祝你好运!


这是新水木AC Milan版献给Billy的进版画面:也许,有一点儿伤感,但这份伤感中又涌动着温暖,那是家的温暖。从Baresi到Costacurta,再到将来的Paolo,米兰人在用一连串的传奇创造着一种特别的足球文化。这种文化早已远远超越了“更高更快更强”的单纯体育精神,我从中读出的两个词是:忠诚与信任。

我们常说足球是十一个人的运动,其实更确切地讲,是十一个人组成的集体,而不是十一个独立的个人的运动。要将个人组织成一个集体,可以有很多不同的方式,既可以选择现代的商业化管理,也可以采用传统的家庭式管理。后者虽然看似已经落后于时代,但对于小规模组织来说,却也有其得天独厚的优势。究竟选择哪一种方式,除去经营者本人的理念之外,很大程度上也要取决于所处的社会文化环境。

先扯句远的,估计当年看过《美国往事》和《教父》等美国黑帮电影的观众中肯定有人会有这样的疑问:为什么美国的黑帮都是意大利人、犹太人这些外来少数民族,而鲜有“正宗美国人”呢?这不单单是外来移民经济困难的原因,更重要的是这些民族传统的基于血缘或地缘关系的集体文化。即便是远渡重洋来到遥远的北美大陆,多数人还是保持着家乡传统的价值观,因此他们依旧沿用着相似的社会组织形式,一种依赖于忠诚与信任而搭建起来的等级结构。相比之下,高度市场化的正宗美国人信奉的是fair play的自由竞争,除去军营之外,这样的社会文化几乎是不可能容许绝对“老大”的存在的。

回过头来还说米兰,这是一只意大利人经营,意大利人管理,以本土球员为主力班底的典型意大利球队,而意大利又恰恰是欧洲大陆上传统家族文化氛围最为浓厚的国家之一。所以当我们看到安切洛蒂,塔索第,巴雷西,科斯塔库塔等等老队员依次从一而终又相继走上母队的管理岗位时,就不应该感到奇怪。当然,如果用现代的企业经验管理理念来衡量,Milan的用人模式是陈旧落伍不合时宜的,但就是这样一只不合时宜的球队在过去的五年里三度杀进欧冠决赛,成绩用无可辩驳的事实证明了米兰的成功——传统并不输给现代。对米兰来说,更衣室里的传统文化才是这支球队无比稳定的根基,因此对于引援工作来说,溶于球队,溶于米兰文化,远比个人能力更为重要。去年夏天以1800万高价购入的新7号奥利维拉的米兰之旅以失败收场,综其缘由,正在的问题倒不在于其个人能力优劣,其实他的处子秀可谓相当成功,但是由于种种原因,他始终游离于球队整体之外,一个人孤独地带球、射门,这样的性格,慢说是他,就算是前足球先生里瓦尔多也要黯然离场,米兰需要天才,但更需要一个团结信任的集体。当一条平均年龄超过34岁的爷爷级后防线在顶级赛事中表现出无可挑剔的稳健与坚毅时,我相信没有人会怀疑,足球并不单单依靠身体、技术和才华,一个团结默契相互信任的整体才是真正不可战胜的。

正如冠军教头银狐里皮在捧得大力神杯之后所坦言:“我所挑选的并不是最有才华的22名球员,但这22个人能够组成最有战斗力的集体。”有人说这是一只丑陋的球队,因为它缺少惹人尖叫的个人秀,但这正是蓝衣军团胜利的关键所在,也正是亚平宁文化迷人的魅力所在。

愿米兰文化星火相承,世代不熄。Forza!

5/18/2007

美国防部亡羊补牢

早知今日,何必当初呢?也许亡羊补牢,犹未晚也,只是可怜枯骨。

不过布什一定还是会失望的,因为科学的态度也许能够为和平创造一个机会,却绝无可能帮助他赢得"the global war on terror"。
Science 27 April 2007:
Vol. 316. no. 5824, pp. 534 - 535
DOI: 10.1126/science.316.5824.534

News Focus

CROSS-CULTURAL RESEARCH:
Pentagon Asks Academics for Help in Understanding Its Enemies

Yudhijit Bhattacharjee

A new program at the U.S. Department of Defense would support research on how local populations behave in a war zone

The Iraq War was going badly in Diyala, a northern province bordering Iran, in late 2005. A rash of kidnappings and roadside explosions was threatening to give insurgents the upper hand. Looking for insights on how to quell the violence, the U.S. Department of Defense invited a handful of researchers funded by the agency to build computer models of the situation combining recent activity with cultural, political, and economic data about the region collected by DOD-funded anthropologists.

The output from one model, developed by sociologist Kathleen Carley and her colleagues at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, connected a series of seemingly disparate incidents to local mosques. Results from another model, built by computer scientist Alexander Levis and his colleagues at George Mason University (GMU) in Fairfax, Virginia, offered a better strategy for controlling the insurgency: Getting Iraqis to take over the security of two major highways, and turning a blind eye to the smuggling of goods along those routes, the model found, would be more effective than deploying additional troops. The model also suggested that a planned information campaign in the province was unlikely to produce results within an acceptable period of time.

Researchers and DOD officials say these insights, however limited, demonstrate a role for the social and behavioral sciences in combat zones. And a new program called Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling will greatly expand that role. John Young Jr., director of Defense Research and Engineering and architect of the program, has asked Congress for $7 million for fiscal year 2008, which begins on 1 October, as a down payment on a 6-year, $70 million effort. Agency officials expect to direct an additional $54 million in existing funds to social science modeling over the next 6 years. Under the new program, the agency will solicit proposals from the research community on broad topic areas announced periodically, and grants will be awarded after an open competition.

Officials hope that the knowledge gained from such research will help U.S. forces fight what the Bush Administration calls a global war on terror and help commanders cope with an incendiary mix of poverty, civil and religious enmity, and public opposition to the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq. "We want to avoid situations where nation states have unstable governments and instability within populations, with disenfranchised groups creating violence on unsuspecting citizens," says Young. "Toward that goal, we need computational tools to understand to the fullest extent possible the society we are dealing with, the political forces within that government, the social and cultural and religious influences on that population, and how that population is likely to react to stimuli--from aid programs to the presence of U.S. troops."

Figure 1 Beyond bombs and guns. DOD officials say social science models can supplement the use of force to reduce violence in Iraq.

CREDIT: MAURICIO LIMA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The approach represents a broader and more scientific way to achieve military objectives than by using force alone, according to Young. "The military is used to thinking about bombs, aircraft, and guns," he says. "This is about creating a population environment where people feel that they have a voice and opportunity." Such tools would not replace the war games that military commanders currently use to simulate combat between conventional defense forces. Instead, the models would give military leaders knowledge about other options, such as whether improving economic opportunity in a disturbed region is more likely to restore order than imposing martial law and hunting down insurgents. Once developed in academic labs, the software would be installed in command and control systems.

The plan has drawn mixed reactions from defense experts. "They are smoking something they shouldn't be," says Paul Van Riper, a retired lieutenant general who served as director of intelligence for the U.S. Army in the mid-1990s. Human systems are far too complex to be modeled, he says: "Only those who don't know how the real world works will be suckers for this stuff."

But retired general Anthony Zinni, former chief of U.S. Central Command and a vocal critic of the Administration's handling of the Iraq War, sees value in the program. "Even if these models turn out to be basic," he says, "they would at least open up a way for commanders to think about cultural and behavioral factors when they make decisions--for example, the fact that a population's reaction to something may not be what one might expect based on the Western brand of logic."

The new program is not the first time the military has tried to integrate cultural, behavioral, and economic aspects of an adversary into its battle plans. During the Cold War, for example, U.S. defense and intelligence agencies hired dozens of anthropologists to prepare dossiers on Soviet society. Similar efforts were made during the U.S. war in Vietnam, with little success. But proponents say that today's researchers have a much greater ability to gather relevant data and analyze the information using algorithms capable of detecting hidden patterns.

A few such projects are already under way. At the University of Maryland, College Park, computer scientist V. S. Subrahmanian and his colleagues have developed software tools to extract specific information about violent incidents from a plethora of news sources. They then use that information to tease out rules about the enemy's behavior. For example, an analysis of strikes carried out by Hezbollah, the terrorist group in Lebanon, showed that the group was much more likely to carry out suicide bombings during times when it was not actively engaged in education and propaganda. The insight could potentially help security forces predict and counter suicide attacks. "This is a very coarse finding, not the last word by any means," cautions Subrahmanian, adding that a lot more data and analysis would be needed to refine that rule as well as come up with other, more useful ones. Last year, the researchers applied their tools to provide the U.S. Army with a detailed catalog of violence committed against the United States and each other by tribes in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region.

Other modeling projects are addressing more fundamental questions. With funding from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, mathematical economist Scott Page of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and his colleagues are modeling societal change under the competing influences of an individual's desire to act according to his or her values and the pressure to conform to social norms. The work could shed light on which environments are most supportive of terrorist cells, information that could help decide where to focus intelligence-gathering efforts and how to bust those cells. The research could also help estimate, by looking at factors such as rise in unemployment and growing social acceptance of violent behavior, when a population may be plunging into chaos. That in turn could help commanders and policy-makers decide when and how to intervene.

Accomplishing those goals is a tall order, Page admits. "Despite tons and tons of data from U.S. elections," he says, "we are still not very good at predicting how people will vote."

Building comprehensive and realistic models of societies is a challenge that will require enormous amounts of empirical data, says GMU's Levis, a former chief scientist of the U.S. Air Force. But it is doable, he says, adding that the field will benefit greatly from linking social science researchers and computer scientists. "The goal here is to win popular support in the conflict zone," he says.

5/17/2007

卧龙片段

青葱的山脊,蒙蒙的雨雾,淳朴的村民,慢节奏的生活。龙门阵有空儿再摆。

4/28/2007

夜雨寄北

君问归期未有期,

巴山夜雨涨秋池。

何当共剪西窗烛,

却话巴山夜雨时。

日日阴雨,湿冷彻骨,云雾偶有消散,屋后山尖的新雪犹抱琵琶。工作不敢有一日停歇,在泥泞湿滑的山路上寻访云里人家。

大概要度过最冷的一个五一节了。

4/12/2007

休止符

又要进山里去做野人了,哈哈。本blog休息一个月。

此期间的三个愿望:
  • 研究工作顺利
  • 身体运转良好
  • Milan做掉MU
走了,再见~~

4/09/2007

What Is a Left-Libertarian?

Now and then, I'm confused with the definition of left and right in politics partly because of the paradoxical CCP official propaganda. Sometimes I took myself as an individualist, while another day I found consistent with egalitarianism. Was I suffering from split personality? So I took the Political Compass questionnaire composed of a long list of questions on a broad spectrum of social and economic topics to check which side I am taking on earth.

The result appears even far clearer than I expected. Read from the diagram below, I am significantly marked with a tag of left-libertarian.

Then what is in deed a left-libertarian or liberal leftist?

Rather than the redundant and boring interpretation, I think the following map could shed more light on this classification.

Besides, there is also a chart of internationally known contemporary leaders on the compass to revive the coordinate.

Comparing my position on the compass with the later two, it is so exciting for me, though not much to surprise, to find myself standing with the Holy Hero Gandhi side by side, as well as Mandela and Dalai Lama, who are all icons on my book. What is more, finding George W Bush well at the other end of the diagonal makes the analysis even more convictive, which is certainly not at odds because the test is not a mystic prophecy but a positivistic generalization.

Can anything else be told from the compass? Yes, a lot. For example, it is obvious that near all the 'successful' political leaders are authoritarians. Why does a dictator always win in the name of democracy? And as to China, most of the puzzling phenomena, including the crazy economic blooming and the crazier social polarization, could be interpreted by the CCP government's translocation across the vertical axis from Stalin to Bush. Unfortunately, it doesn't make me much less uncomfortable, if ever any, as I'm a 'left-libertarian'.

4/07/2007

PhD的后现代生活

昨晚大学老同学聚会宴饮,做东的是从美国归来度假的准PhD,作陪的也十之八九是未来的PhD,例外的几位是准Md。不但从学历上看像是一场学术会议,实际的进程更是如此。

旧友重逢,自然有道不尽的千言万语,从何说起呢?最熟悉的,当然是实验室了!于是半桌子的准PhD们开始逐项讨论实验手册里的技术问题:从ELISA到western,从E. Coli到小白鼠……可惜俺远离这个行业好多年,业务早已生疏,不能完整复述,抱歉抱歉。

间或好像也听见一两句实验室门外的事情,原来无论内外,准Phd们的业余生活不外乎在网上看看国内外肥皂剧和娱乐节目,此外,实验,实验,实验……

半桌子热火朝天的学术会议,半桌子面面相觑的沉默不语。想找个话题打破尴尬,又实在找不出共同语言,俨然是生活在两个位面中的人群。

环境果然塑造人。实验室的一堵墙,把世界分成相互隔离的两个空间,与围城相反,一旦进去就再难出来,一旦出来也决不想进去。里面的人和外面的人互相观望,对方俨然都是怪物。

说句实话,我现在倒是很感激八家村,虽然其脏其乱其吵在最初的日子里曾令我不胜烦恼,但日子久了慢慢意识到,正是每天上班在八家村穿行的经历,使自己的脚扎根在社会底层的土壤之中而免于沉醉于象牙塔的玄虚之中不能自拔(原本是有这个倾向的),才得以有勇气把胆大妄为的研究计划付诸践行。

所谓PhD,Doctor of Philosophy,哲学博士是也,但恕我眼拙,实在是看不出实验员的哲学在哪里。前些年听过一次普林斯顿大学分子生物系某华人教授的讲演,大体上是要为人生规划指点迷津的意思,可惜表现出的哲学水平实在是对不起PhD的名头,居然还大受追捧……好在该校的生态进化生物学在此之前已经跟分子生物学分家了,还不至于因此污了May爵爷留下的金字招牌。

都抱怨国内的学术环境恶劣,在腐败堕落的土鳖砧木上嫁接教书不育人的海龟接穗,又指望能长出什么又大又甜的果子来呢?前些日子中国政府出台了一套优待海归学者的规定,居然连子女就学也提供优待,果然是中国特色,不好想象这些小恩小惠能召回来什么样的金凤凰。倒是陈丹青先生的评论中肯些,如今的海归,做技术的多如牛毛,有思想的寥若晨星,还是不要过高期望的好。

说到自己,实在不堪,一边是留美预备学校的传统影响,一边是海归学者的拙劣榜样,摇摇摆摆一晃两年,眼看变成青春梦一场,不想偶遇Tim,每天学术、艺术、政治、宗教海侃,又教诲俺科学的Convergence和Divergence,方知PhD果真有哲学的,于是又死灰复燃起来了。不妨试试去读个懂点儿Ph的D回来。

4/06/2007

SCIENCE AND SOCIETY: Framing Science

SCIENCE AND SOCIETY:

Framing Science

Matthew C. Nisbet1* and Chris Mooney2

Issues at the intersection of science and politics, such as climate change, evolution, and embryonic stem cell research, receive considerable public attention, which is likely to grow, especially in the United States as the 2008 presidential election heats up. Without misrepresenting scientific information on highly contested issues, scientists must learn to actively "frame" information to make it relevant to different audiences. Some in the scientific community have been receptive to this message (1). However, many scientists retain the well-intentioned belief that, if laypeople better understood technical complexities from news coverage, their viewpoints would be more like scientists', and controversy would subside.

In reality, citizens do not use the news media as scientists assume. Research shows that people are rarely well enough informed or motivated to weigh competing ideas and arguments. Faced with a daily torrent of news, citizens use their value predispositions (such as political or religious beliefs) as perceptual screens, selecting news outlets and Web sites whose outlooks match their own (2). Such screening reduces the choices of what to pay attention to and accept as valid (3).

Figure 1
CREDIT: PHOTOS.COM
Frames organize central ideas, defining a controversy to resonate with core values and assumptions. Frames pare down complex issues by giving some aspects greater emphasis. They allow citizens to rapidly identify why an issue matters, who might be responsible, and what should be done (4, 5).

Consider global climate change. With its successive assessment reports summarizing the scientific literature, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has steadily increased its confidence that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming. So if science alone drove public responses, we would expect increasing public confidence in the validity of the science, and decreasing political gridlock.

Despite recent media attention, however, many surveys show major partisan differences on the issue. A Pew survey conducted in January found that 23% of college-educated Republicans think global warming is attributable to human activity, compared with 75% of Democrats (6). Regardless of party affiliation, most Americans rank global warming as less important than over a dozen other issues (6). Much of this reflects the efforts of political operatives and some Republican leaders who have emphasized the frames of either "scientific uncertainty" or "unfair economic burden" (7). In a counter-strategy, environmentalists and some Democratic leaders have framed global warming as a "Pandora's box" of catastrophe; this and news images of polar bears on shrinking ice floes and hurricane devastation have evoked charges of "alarmism" and further battles.

Recently, a coalition of Evangelical leaders have adopted a different strategy, framing the problem of climate change as a matter of religious morality. The business pages tout the economic opportunities from developing innovative technologies for climate change. Complaints about the Bush Administration's interference with communication of climate science have led to a "public accountability" frame that has helped move the issue away from uncertainty to political wrongdoing.

As another example, the scientific theory of evolution has been accepted within the research community for decades. Yet as a debate over "intelligent design" was launched, antievolutionists promoted "scientific uncertainty" and "teach-the-controversy" frames, which scientists countered with science-intensive responses. However, much of the public likely tunes out these technical messages. Instead, frames of "public accountability" that focus on the misuse of tax dollars, "economic development" that highlight the negative repercussions for communities embroiled in evolution battles, and "social progress" that define evolution as a building block for medical advances, are likely to engage broader support.

The evolution issue also highlights another point: Messages must be positive and respect diversity. As the film Flock of Dodos painfully demonstrates, many scientists not only fail to think strategically about how to communicate on evolution, but belittle and insult others' religious beliefs (8).

On the embryonic stem cell issue, by comparison, patient advocates have delivered a focused message to the public, using "social progress" and "economic competitiveness" frames to argue that the research offers hope for millions of Americans. These messages have helped to drive up public support for funding between 2001 and 2005 (9, 10). However, opponents of increased government funding continue to frame the debate around the moral implications of research, arguing that scientists are "playing God" and destroying human life. Ideology and religion can screen out even dominant positive narratives about science, and reaching some segments of the public will remain a challenge (11).

Some readers may consider our proposals too Orwellian, preferring to safely stick to the facts. Yet scientists must realize that facts will be repeatedly misapplied and twisted in direct proportion to their relevance to the political debate and decision-making. In short, as unnatural as it might feel, in many cases, scientists should strategically avoid emphasizing the technical details of science when trying to defend it.

4/05/2007

生物学?

终于赶在进山之前战战兢兢地向导师汇报了我那个离经叛道的研究计划。我估计在上一次课题组会之后肯定就已经有师兄师姐在背后议论:那小子搞的到底是什么啊?

是什么?我也不知道。说起来这个问题已经困扰我有些年月了。

当初报考大学的时候选了生物系,后来才发现原来此“生物科学与技术系”实乃“技术系”,整日与取样器、离心机、PCR和电泳仪打交道,讨论话题总跳不出实验室的瓶瓶罐罐。于是毅然叛逃,改投生态。后又不知不觉七转八转,经济学、心理学、社会学也都或多或少掺杂其中,以至于自己也不知究竟该称其为何物了。既然不论是人还是E. Coli都还在生物的广义范畴之内,就且把我的工作算作生物学吧。不过虽然名曰研究生物学,其实惭愧得很,上一次在卧龙与鸟类专家Tim一起工作,没事脖子上也挂着个望远镜装模作样地站在山坡上观鸟,其实能认得的大概两只手就数得过来。这算哪门子生物学呢?我想起两个故事。

第一个是我自己的故事:还是在研究生院上课那会儿,有一天刚下过雨,我夹着本书在院子里溜达(这是大学是留下的毛病,天气好的时候在室外转悠,天气不好的时候躲到图书馆,总之尽可能不在教室上自习)。在路边发现一个蚂蚁洞,大个的黑蚂蚁(对不起,我向来对动物分类不感冒)正出出进进从洞里往外搬沙子,忙得不亦乐乎,几只带翅的雄蚁也钻出来凑热闹,也许是晒太阳。我下意识地就蹲到路边不走了,就跟儿时在自家小院里一样,“一,二,三……”数了一会儿才反应过来自己在干什么。于是又开始思考这样一个问题:我的“生物学”同行们遇到这种情况又会作何反应呢?若是我当初在实验室的同仁们,想必一定抓几只回去化验了,测序?提蛋白?基因克隆?总之肯定是死无全尸了。换做热衷于分类的博物学友人,大概早就带着标本瓶子满载而归了,这一次倒是能留得全尸,而且还能像列宁同志一样漂漂亮亮地躺在玻璃盒子里永垂不朽呢。至于我这样的生态学或者社会生物学的爱好者,本能的反应就是像个密探似的悄悄呆在旁边别动,掏出记事本来记录如下统计数据:每一时刻有多少蚂蚁爬入,多少爬出,有多少衔了沙子,沙子搬到多远,相互间有何交流动作……这就是不同生物学视角下的蚂蚁,微观实验者目无全蚁,分类专家眼里的一只蚂蚁代表一窝蚂蚁,而对生态学来说,一窝蚂蚁才算是蚂蚁。

第二个故事是Martin Nowak在哈佛大学的报告会上讲的:有一天他碰上一个牧羊人赶着一大群羊,他走上去跟牧羊人说:“我要是猜出你有多少只羊,你能给我一只吗?”牧羊人很好奇,于是答应了。Nowak看了一眼羊群,说:“83。”牧羊人很是吃惊,尽管不情愿,也还是让Nowak选了一只羊牵走。Nowak牵着自己选的羊没走出多远,牧羊人就从后面赶了上来。他要反悔?不,他说:“也给我一个机会吧。如果我猜出你是干什么的,你把羊还我行吗?”Nowak也很好奇,于是也答应了。“你是一个数学生物学家(mathematical biologist)。”牧羊人毫不犹豫地说。这回吃惊的轮到Nowak了。“羊可以还给你,但是你得告诉我你是怎么猜出来的。”“瞧,先生,你牵走的是我的狗。”——这也是生物学家呢,哈哈。

这里原本是一片自由的开阔地的,后来陆陆续续来了很多拓荒者,建起了房子,也修起了蜘蛛网一样的篱笆。现在我在这里散步,就不得不费劲地翻越一道又一道篱笆,连衣服也刮坏了,但我还是乐此不疲。

有些鸟大概是不能关在笼子里的。

3/30/2007

公交新闻

此公交新闻非公交电视之新闻,乃旁听老妪之闲谈也。

前天早上坐333路公交车上班(每天晚上也坐这趟车的末班回家,车上有一位对乘客嫉恶如仇的售票员大嫂,光想想就起鸡皮疙瘩),前排坐着的两位老太太一路上一直在聊天。开始也没太注意,后来发现还挺有意思。摘录几段并简评如下:
  1. 关于学生:“我有个亲戚家的孩子考了他们省第五,考到清华来了,一年就过年回家呆一星期,暑假也不回家,上什么新东方,早早就惦记着出国……在北京呆了四五年了一回也没来看过我。你说这孩子是不是念书念傻了,一点儿感情也没有,……”

    我的评论:“如果这样算是念书念傻了的话,我有至少一半同学都傻了……以后的中国就靠这些没有感情的人才撑着了,教育制度害人误国啊……”

  2. 关于婚姻:“咱们小区里好多孩子都三十好几了也不着急……不过我看结婚越晚的越孝顺,你想一个大小伙子跟爹妈一起住那么多年,能不孝顺吗?……”

    我的评论:“又是代沟的表现。每次回家我爷爷都嘱咐两件事:一是入党,二是结婚……孝顺是一定要的,跟入不入党,结不结婚没关系,所以姑且说之,姑且听之……”

  3. 关于上班:“现在的人可真会享受,9点才上班。咱们那会儿都8点上班,工作时间还不行说话。太不公平了。都应该8点上班……”

    我的评论:“上班晚了,说明生活质量提高了,这是好事,您愿意看您儿子天天起那么早吗?话又说回来,您是没看见我们晚上加班到什么时候……”

  4. 关于言论自由:“……不过中国还是不行。我今早听凤凰卫视说苏州街地铁出事了,压死了6个民工,别的媒体还不敢报道……”

    我的评论:“啊,出了这么大的事我都不知道。看来官方带头弄虚作假瞒报事实也是中国一大特色。矿难瞒报,医院失火瞒报,非典疫情瞒报,……,这回地铁塌方又瞒报,当老百姓都是三岁孩子啊。瞧瞧人家老大妈的眼睛,那可是雪亮雪亮的啊!”
别看环境条件照中央电视台差了点儿,播音员的普通话水平照罗京比也差了点儿,可公交新闻这质量可比新闻联播足实多了,这才是咱老百姓喜闻乐见的好新闻哦。

奥运的连锁反应

听说南朝鲜等待肾移植手术的病人开始排大队了。为啥?供体缺货。为啥缺货?因为……因为咱北京要办奥运会。

这个逻辑乍听起来确实有点儿无厘头,可人家明镜周刊还真不是无理取闹,把整条反应链补偿完整就清楚了:
  1. 北京要办奥运会,这是众所周知的头等大事,比解决老百姓就业医疗问题还紧迫。
  2. 要办好奥运,除了自我牺牲还不够,还得尽力争取外界支持。你们不是老批评我们的人权问题吗?好,给个面子,高法把死刑核准权收回了,效果立竿见影,死刑率明显下降。
  3. 死刑犯虽然罪大恶极,但也不是百无一用的(比书生强),至少还可以捐献器官。咱中国人传统上讲究死后留全尸,所以器官捐献者寥寥无几,市场上移植器官的最主要来源就是这些价廉物美的死刑犯了。
  4. 咱中国人穷,韩国人有钱,人家肯出高价,所以中国死刑犯身上的器官就都移民到南朝鲜去了。跟劳动力市场的情况一样,韩国移植器官市场上的主力军也是咱中国人。人多就是牛啊,到哪儿都是优势种。
  5. 中国的死刑犯少了,市场上的供体短缺开始限制出口,所以看来韩国人得另觅货源了。不知道伊拉克人身价几何,再不行可能就得考虑黑非洲了,不过种族差异比较大,不知道会不会排异反应比较严重……
奥运会可真是个大工程啊。

All Your Base Are Belong To Us (III)

用数学模型证明一下(头痛者请自行回避):

为简单起见,把世界设定成最简化的情况,即只有两种人,一种选择x对策,一种青睐y对策,绝无第三种异端,比如一部分人用QQ聊天,其余的人都用MSN,至于Google Talk……这玩意儿不存在(当然现实不会如此简单,Alfonso X the Wise remarked, "If the Lord Almighty had consulted me before embarking upon the Creation, I would have recommended something simpler.")。

继续假设理想状态,所有人充分混合(均匀分布),任意两人依均等概率相遇,
x阵营与y阵营支持者比例分别为p(x), p(y) (p(x)+p(y)=1)连续博弈,payoff矩阵如下:
x y
x a -c
y -c b

假定p(x)>p(y),b>a>c>0。则有

dp(x)/dt=wp(y)max[(ap(x)-cp(y))-(bp(y)-cp(x)), 0]-
wp(x)max[(bp(y)-cp(x))-(ap(x)-cp(y)), 0]

dp(y)/dt=-
dp(x)/dt

显然x与y阵营规模的变化取决于
ap(x)-cp(y)与bp(y)-cp(x)的相对大小,如果ap(x)-cp(y)>bp(y)-cp(x), 即p(x)/p(y)>(b+c)/(a+c), 则x阵营的规模将增长,而y拥护者将减少;反之,则彼消此涨。

显然,此系统有三个平衡点,但中间共存状态(p(x)/
p(y)=(b+c)/(a+c))不稳定,因此只有两个垄断状态(p(x)=1或p(y)=1)是稳定的。

由上可知,如果弱势阵营要想避免被吞并的命运并进而击败对手,则至少要保证y用户之间的payoff b>(a+c)p(x)/p(y)-c。换句话说,只要优势阵营的支持者比例p(x)>(b+c)/(a+b+2c),则尽可高枕无忧。

现实情况之所以并不都是如此残酷,关键原因在于空间异质性,即人群不是充分均匀混合的,而是往往人以类聚,所以以上数学证明的结果也只局限于局部群体。而不同群体之间可以通过老死不相往来隔离屏蔽相互影响,从而各自称王。当然随着全球化的发展,世界的异质性正在逐步淡化,小企业小团体的生存机会也因此必然会越来越小。文化多样性丧失的趋势不可避免。

3/28/2007

All Your Base Are Belong To Us (II)

有人说这是流行恶搞的产物,这倒让我想起去年那部在网上广为流传的调侃国内某知名导演的所谓大片的“馒头血案”。大片我没看过,“馒头”倒是看过,也不觉 得很好,至少不足以如此流行,至于大片本身更是声名狼藉,可是还是有不少人愿意卖高价票当冤大头,这到底都是为了啥?依我看,醉翁之意不在酒,也不在山水 之间,而在于有人同醉。

这大概就是流行的奥秘。

一大堆稀奇古怪的文化元素诞生之后,从中脱颖而出的决定因素往往不是自身 的适应,而是外在的运气;这个过程也往往不是达尔文式的物竞天择适者生存,而是拉马克式的用进废退。流行的起源多半是无厘头的,时装发布会上最漂亮的设计 并不比最难看的设计流行的可能性更高,所以才无法预测流行的未来走向。虽然有些时候人们也会做出理性的判断,但大多数时候文化的走向只是从众效应的结果: 我选择A而不选择B,并不是因为我认为A比B更好,而是因为我看见我的邻居买了A这个牌子,至于他为什么选择A……可能他压根就不知道有B这个牌子吧。一 旦选择同一选项的人数超过了一个临界值,那么这个选项就会突然变得非常有吸引力,就好像你看到一家商店门口排大队,如果队伍拍得够壮观,你可能也会义无反 顾的挤进去,其实说不定前边就是那个孩子在流鼻血。所以嘛,其实要拍一个成功的广告,与其昧着良心绞尽脑汁让人相信该产品如何出类拔萃,还不如告诉观众 “很多很多人都买了我们的产品”!买股票大体上也是同样的策略,根本不必费力打听某企业的真实业绩如何,只要你确信别人都买了这支股票,跟进就是了。更典 型的例子是信仰,从中功、香功到xx功,只要一开始把七大姑八大姨都召集起来利用随便什么手段装出从者如云的样子,那么哪怕“大师”是个白痴,也真的会从 者如云。

在现实生活中,古典经济学的preference理论常常失效,因为当一个人身处群体当中的时候,顺应集体往往比个人喜好更省力 也更保险。在这种情况下,一旦进入了正反馈通道,就可以躺在稳定状态里高枕无忧了,要想把这种霸主推下去可不容易。

商业上最突出的例子可能就是 Microsoft,很早以前我就对这个霸道的品牌颇反感,也尽可能地不使用它的产品,可是到现在我还是在用windows系统。有什么办法呢?我试着用 过半年Linux,唉,系统自身优劣倒在其次,问题是别人的机器都跟我不兼容,而且到了实验室还是得继续依赖Microsoft,特立独行的成本太高了, 到头来还是得从众。所以尽管Microsoft的产品通常并不是最好的,可是更好的产品也仍然难以对它构成太大的威胁,因为大多数消费者并不在乎谁更好, 而只在乎“流行”。

政治上更是如此,小政党在选举中难以与大政党抗衡,从来就不是候选人的能力差距造成的,事实上还往往是草根小党的领袖们看起来更有亲和力一点儿。不过要寄希望于咸鱼翻身,单单依靠个人能力单打独斗还是远远不够的,只要大政党自己阵脚不乱,就算是一帮猪头天天躺在主席台上睡大觉,也照样拿他们没奈何。对绝大多数选民来说,张三还是李四都是一样陌生的名字,投谁的票更多的还是取决于我的亲戚朋友们的选择,而他们其实也比我高明不了多少,最终决定一个选区的集体倾向的可能就是一点儿莫须有的八杆子打不着的亲戚关系而已。而这种集体倾向一旦形成,就再难改变,转换阵营虽然说起来是个人自由,可是却可能要顶着背叛集体的罪名,出门挨砖头的可能性也不小,而丢砖头的理由并不是你投错了票,而是你背叛了我们。你我都痛恨叛徒,所以就是在民主时代要想造反也不容易。

好在政客教主和富商们瓜分完他们的殖民地之后,还给我们草根群众留下了大片的世俗荒野可供开拓——我们尽可以自由地创造和传播下里巴人的草根文化。当然这里面也绝少不了媒体的功劳,单靠街头巷尾的口口相传毕竟扩散速度有限,有了现代媒体,特别是互联网的普及,空间的阻滞就再也不是问题,“网上传消息,天涯共此时”,从众效应从此如虎添翼,任何文化现象都可能如快闪族一般boom and burst,frjj的一举成名不再仅仅是梦。

所以流行的东西之所以流行,就只是因为它偶然开始了流行。

空口无凭,我可以证明给你看。未完待续……

3/27/2007

All Your Base Are Belong To Us (I)

又做了一回火星人。昨天晚上碰到All Your Base Are Belong To Us这句话,百思不得其解。于是知之为知之,不知google之,结果,真是不搜不知道,一搜吓一跳。想不到这句四不像英语早在多年以前就已经“风靡全球”,甚至登上了时代周刊的封面。
All Your Base Are Belong To Us | TIME
你问我这句话到底是什么意思?那可实在是难为我了。话说在1986年日本某游戏公司开发的一款电子游戏中有这样一段翻译成英语的片头动画:

In A.D. 2101
War was beginning.
Captain: What happen?
Mechanic: Somebody set up us the bomb.
Operator: We get signal.
Captain: What !
Operator: Main screen turn on.
Captain: It's You !!
Cats: How are you gentlemen !!
Cats: All your base are belong to us.
Cats: You are on the way to destruction.
Captain: What you say !!
Cats: You have no chance to survive make your time.
Cats: HA HA HA HA ....
Captain: Take off every 'zig' !!
Captain: You know what you doing.
Captain: Move 'zig'.
Captain: For great justice.
现在明白他们在说什么了吗?反正我是对日本英语五体投地了,不知道后来美国电影Lost in Translation选择东京作为故事背景是不是受这个典故的启发。

就这?时代周刊未免也过于小题大做了吧?别急,其实这只是一段引子,角儿还没出场呢。

大概游戏的制作者做梦也想不到,在他们的公司随这款蹩脚之作一起归于尘土十多年之后,这只Zombie不知怎么又被考古爱好者从坟堆里挖了出来,而且这一回是一发而不可收。

官方网站(没错,确实是官方网站)上公布的完整大事年表如下:

History of 'All Your Base'

  1. Toaplan creates the Zero Wing video game.
  2. Toaplan releases a port for the Sega Genesis console with the addition of an intro scene, which is then translated into english (very poorly) and released in the United States.
  3. Toaplan goes out of business.
  4. Someone from a Zany Video Game Quotes website notices the poor translation, and highlights the game.
  5. Overclocked.org does a humorous voiceover of the Zero Wing intro in a fake Wayne Newton voice.
  6. Dozens of game-related messageboards begin to post quotes from the parody, and images altered to show the phrase.
  7. Most of the threads lose interest and die off quickly as the trend is pronounced dead countless times.
  8. The Flash movie/video is released with images from the threads and music taken from the origional game someone had added the phrase "all your base" to.
  9. AYB explosively expands to the general (non game messageboard-reading) public.
  10. The origional site for the video is shut down within hours due to excessive traffic, and moves to PlanetStarsiege.
  11. Lycos ponders how "All your Base" was transformed from obscurity to a top 50 search practically overnight.
  12. Mainstream media begin to notice the trend, and stories appear in Time Magazine, USA Today, Fox News, The Los Angeles Times, Tech TV, Wired, and many others.
  13. As the 'remix' used in the video goes from 58 hits a day to several thousand per day, mp3.com notices the track has been ripped directly from the video game and pulls the music off their site due to copyright violations. It is later returned unchanged.
  14. The trend continues to grow as it expands into nearly every corner of the web.
  15. Large websites like Angelfire and Hewlett Packard sneak "all your base" references into their designs.
  16. "All Your Base" is pronounced dead several times every day, yet it's 15 minutes of fame continue for some reason...
反正这句话就这样糊里糊涂地被传播到了世界的各个角落,虽然大概谁也说不清它到底是在说什么,当然,不知所云本身应该正是这个故事的主题。


剧情就此告一段落,但我可并不是为了仅仅再嚼一遍这个过了保质期的故事。我感兴趣的是:一句无聊的蹩脚英语是怎么流行起来的呢?

未完待续……

3/23/2007

钉子户的故事

这些日子对于重庆“最牛钉子户”的追踪报道的确扣人心弦,实在不是那些无聊的中外肥皂剧所能企及的。听惯了弱势群体的血泪史,终于赶上一回现实版梁山故事。究竟是英雄还是刁民?想必大家都心里有数。

不免让人想起那个流传已久的“德国皇帝与磨坊主”的故事。当然事后已有热心者考证,此故事纯属德国无聊作家虚构,如有雷同,纯属巧合。不过,其实是否确有其事对于绝大多数人来说已经不甚重要,这样一个小故事能够广为流传,甚至横穿欧亚大陆,已经足可见民众对此观念的认可程度。所谓文化,往往不过也就是一个莫须有的传说由于偶然适应了需要而被级联放大得以扩散最终成为主流的结果。在相互传播故事的同时,其实也就清晰地表达了对于自己这一价值观的认可,而这才是最重要的。

日前物权法也已正式出台,保护私有财产的正当性更加不容置疑。城市建设为谁而建?若是违民之意,不建也罢。地产商损失了3000万?谁让他无视国法民权,活该!

附传说中的“德国皇帝与磨坊主”故事:
在资本主义国家德国有这样一个故事,号称“军人国王”的普鲁士国王弗里德里希,后来在法国巴黎的凡尔赛宫镜厅被德意志各邦君主拥立为德国皇帝,深受广大人 民群众爱戴,他的助手就是大名鼎鼎的铁血宰相俾斯麦。现在德国街头还有他骑着青铜战马的塑像。当年他在距离柏林不远的波茨坦修建了一座行宫,相当于我们今 天的北带河。有一次这位皇帝用伟人们惯有的动作,登高远眺波茨坦市的全景,欲掐腰感慨江山如此多姣,他的视线却被紧挨着宫殿的一座磨坊挡住了。如此不合时 宜的“违章建筑”,让这位领袖非常扫兴。但他毕竟还是爱自己的子民的,他想以一种公道的方式来解决,于是他派人前去与磨坊的主人协商,希望能够买下这座磨 房。不料这个磨坊主觉悟非常低,丝毫不顾全大局,心里只有小家,没有大家,一点不把“市政规划”和“国家形象”放在眼里。就认一个死理,这座磨坊是从祖上 传下来的,不能败在我手里。几次协商,许以高价,晓之以理,动之以情,表示组织的关怀,警告威胁领袖安全,影响伟大祖国形象这个问题的严重性。要知道这里 可是一个国家的门面,来这儿的国际友人多了去了,一百多年以后波茨坦公告都是在这里签的。可这个老汉始终软硬不吃。面对这样不识抬举、不可理喻的钉子户, 终于威廉龙颜震怒,派警卫员把磨坊给拆了。有趣的是这个钉子户拆迁时倒很配合,展现了良好的绅士风度,好像一点都不担心,既没有哭天喊地,满地打滚,也没 有把汽油倒在身上威胁要自焚。他袖手站在一边,嘴里叽叽咕咕:别看你是一国首脑,我德国尚有法院在,待我到法院与你理论。

第二天这个老汉,居然就在当地一纸讼狀把国家元首告上了法庭,地方法院居然受理了,判决结果居然是威廉一世败诉。判决皇帝必须“恢复原状”,赔偿由于拆毁 房子造成的损失。威廉贵为一国之君,拿到判决书也只好遵照执行,本来是想办件好事,现在比窦娥还要冤。而那个刁民此时躺在他的小磨坊里,一边数钞票,一边 偷着乐,压根就用不着冒着被遣送拘留的危险,背着乡干部三番五次跑到柏林去上访。也不担心什么打击报复,秋后算帐,从此以后不管什么国际友人来访,他天天 心安理得地磨他的面粉。

后来威廉一世和那个磨房主都驾崩了,轮到小磨房主想进城,希望把磨房给卖了,不由想起了那个老买主,也不知第二代领导人对这个磨房感不感兴趣,就给威廉二 世写了封信。威廉二世给他回了信:“我亲爱的邻居,来信已阅。得知你现在手头紧张,作为邻居我深表同情。你说你要把磨坊卖掉,朕以为期期不可。毕竟这间磨 坊已经成为我德国司法独立之象征。理当世世代代保留在你家的名下。至于你的经济困难,我派人送去三千马克,请务必收下。如果你不好意思收的话,就算是我借 给你的,解决你一时之急。你的邻居威廉二世”。

历经了多少个统治者,到现在,那个磨坊,德国司法独立的象征,代表了一个民族对法律的信念,象纪念碑一样屹立在德国的土地上。

3/22/2007

旅游之罪

“请到天涯海角来,这里四季春常在……”

很难把上面这首老歌与下面这位网友的不幸经历联系起来,可是有石为证,他们描述的的确是同一处地方,只是时间不同而已……

如此令人恶心的三亚 网友的亲历 - 马虎山人 - 新浪BLOG

就是这时间,可以改变一切。不过十几年光景,天涯海角依旧,而四季之春不再,何故?

海南1988年建省,蛮荒之地,自力更生,发展出路何在?种植园经济难以成事,地产投资泡沫早已成过眼云烟,论天时地利,唯有椰林沙滩热带风光奇货可居,发展旅游大势所趋。

旅游已成共识,但模式却颇待商榷。天时地利俱备,只欠人和,而这人和恰恰是成事的关键。自古以来,官员调任海南皆为谪贬,恐怕如今也难免沦为失意官员的疗养院,正所谓“天高皇帝远”,纲纪废弛的传闻也就不足为奇了。既然奉改革开放之名,不妨一放到底,上上下下各自为政,撑死胆大,饿死胆小,“完全自由市场经济”。殊不知民众全无公共之意识,法治之观念,市场之经验,如此放任,随自私短视的恶性竞争和贪污腐化的行为示范,最终必然只能得到一个混乱无序、道德沦丧的泥潭。今日之事,对这位网友来说是偶然之不幸,对海南来说则是必然之劫难。苛责今之官员一二,亦是枉然。

经济振兴,环境保护,一切皆以民众之文化为本。若雷锋遍及,则世上无难事;反之则前途黯淡。昔日于田野工作,山下之人以假药骗我,山上之人以酒饭待我,感慨良多。旅游之计,或可兴经济,亦可废道德,孰重孰轻,只怕身在其中而难辨。鱼与熊掌可否兼得,为政者当谋之。

3/17/2007

无法穿越的罗生门

在枕上读完了黑泽明的回忆录,并不觉得怎样精彩,唯一的感受就是“真实”。并非是说所复述的事情很真实,而是指他的态度和情感很真实。这也正是我偏好读自传的原因。

对个人而言,世界本无客观,只看笔在谁手中,眼在谁心中。自传并非为回忆过去,而是借回忆往事表达此时的思想;他传亦然,不同只在于所托非己。故而我不读他传,除非想读那个作家,而不是传记的主人公。如同读史记,与其说为项羽而扼腕,为荆轲而动容,不如说共鸣于太史公的历史观。至于历史的本来面目,则如荒草中的枯冢,隐约而看不分明了。黑泽明的文字,一如他的胶片不比小津先生一般宽厚,更显热情泼辣和爱憎分明。也许其中颇有些片段因岁月的摩擦而扭曲失真,有些人挨了他的冤枉骂,有些幕后英雄被永远的遗落了,也许笔者在定稿以后还会发现其中的疏漏,但是我想他定然不必因此而后悔,因为他的回忆“到罗生门为止”。

他是这样写的:
“人是很难如实地谈他自己的。

人总是本能地美化自己——这一点,我有了更深刻的体会……

我写的这个类似自传的东西,是不是真的老老实实写了我自己呢?

难道不是同样没有触及丑陋的部分,把自己或多或少地美化了吗?

我在写《罗生门》这一节的过程中,不能不对此有所反省。

所以,也不能继续写下去了。

出乎意料,《罗生门》成了使我这个电影人走向世界的大门,可是写自传的我却不能穿过这个门再前进了。”

虽然我也喜欢他的《七武士》、《影武者》、《乱》,直到最后的《梦》(原来其中水车村的原型就来自于秋田县那个“遥远的乡村”),但是《罗生门》确乎是注定无法超越的。

尽管无法穿越罗生门,做一只能够直面镜中丑陋的自我而吓出一身油来的蛤蟆也是何其的不易!