新手

-“嗨，新手。” -“你说谁呢？你才是新手呢，你们全家都是新手！”

的确，人们在提及“新手”这个称谓的时候，多多少少都隐隐约约地夹藏着一点儿轻蔑的揶揄之意；中国人论资排辈，外国人也一样，layman啊，rookie啊，总之新兵蛋子活该坐刺刀。新手也是人，歧视当然是万万不应该的，但是如果稍微注意观察和归纳以下“新手”的行为特征，还真的能把大多数新手识别为一个独特的群体，甚至有时候你会觉得他们受一点儿歧视也是合情合理的。

昨天坐公交车去图书馆，一上车就觉得奇怪：不是都改刷卡了吗，怎么还配两个售票员？后来发现不是两个售票员，是倆司机，更新鲜了。

敢情是老司机指导新手上路呢，我们一车人当陪练。当然，这指导还是蛮有必要的。最近几年北京城里的私家车数量直线上升，好多白领刚领了驾照就到马路上实战演习来了，半路熄火的，违章并线的，在四环路上练刹车的， 十有八九都是这些不怕虎的初生牛犊，于是本来就不堪重负的交通自然就更是雪上加霜了。

不过新手倒也没什么可责怪的，还是那句话，谁还不是从新手过来的呢？宽容一点儿吧。可惜你对他宽容，他可不一定对你宽容。就说昨天这位开车的新司机，车开得慢一点儿，刹车踩得急一点儿，这都不要紧，可是把责任都推到别人身上就大大的不应该了。油门踩大了差点刮了行人，还要骂人一句；跟出租车抢道，一连串的脏话就跟上了发条似的，熟练程度可比开车强多了，可惜没有这么一个行业用的上这样的专业人才。

这是特例吗？我看不像。我有个亲属刚学会开车的时候也是七个不服、八个不忿的样子，一路上恨不得把同路人数落个遍，后来自己开得熟练了，倒也再不指点江山了。其实我自己也是一样，年轻那会儿自信满满，最擅长使用反问句式，“这你都不知道？……”，后来终于被老爹狠狠训斥了一顿，稍有收敛。再后来，书读的越来越多了，也越来越发觉自己的无知，“不知为不知”，少说两句还能少犯点儿错误，丢的人已经够多的了。

找客观原因推卸责任也许有助于缓解心理压力，但是发挥过度可就不利于自身调整发展了。光批评别人不自我批评，岂不是越走越歪？都当自己是永远“伟大、光荣、正确的XXX”呢？再从旁观者的角度看，按说有人负责指导开车，也该有人负责纠正骂人才对，满满一车的旁观者（包括我自己）都无动于衷，反躬自省，这样的个体行为是不是也跟我们的整体社会风气有关呢？长此以往，是不是有整个社会陷入道德陷阱了危险呢？退一步讲，既然新司机可以肆无忌惮的骂人，为何新记者搞个采访就活该被活活打死呢？这个社会太复杂，看不懂啊看不懂。

言多必失，还是老老实实看书去。

穿越回忆的旅程

选择Mazzacurati的《公牛》作为这次意大利影展观看计划的压轴大戏，不料天气突变，寒风骤起，在公交车站饱饱地呼吸了十五分钟新鲜空气，终于错过了开场的几分钟，倒也正好躲过了那个颇具中国特色的意大利橄榄油广告。

意大利电影总是让我感到亲切，无论是《意大利式婚礼》中的欢喜冤家，还是《儿子的房间》中含蓄深沉的亲情，都仿佛就在身边发生，而这种感觉在其他西方电影中则很少能寻觅得到。这一次这种熟悉的感觉果然又如约而至：刚刚在一片黑暗中摸到一个空位，就听见Franco在抱怨公社解体带来的烦恼，这种抱怨对于绝大多数中国观众来说实在是再熟悉不过，于是错过的开头部分也就无足轻重了。

随后是官僚主义，失业的穷人，朴素的农舍，过气的前朝遗老，财大气粗的“资本主义”投资商和皮条客，以及发散着无产阶级兄弟温暖的合作社……眼睛随着红色的大卡车一路驶过动荡而变迁的岁月，不免想起远在北方的家乡，想起那些昔日我的父辈曾经在其中工作并依靠过的如今已经空空如野的厂房，以及一同远去的机器轰鸣；又想起鞋底上沾着的四川崎岖山路的泥土，山坡上金黄色的落叶松和简陋的农家木屋。

记忆忽然又跳进另一部影片中，相似的漫长而孤独的旅途，相似的寒冷、荒凉，相似的混乱和动荡，是希腊导演Angelopoulos的《尤利西斯的凝视》。只是充满象征意味的胶片幻化成了孔武有力的公牛，哲人的探索蜕变成了对现实生活的世俗拼搏，还有拖船上被拆毁的列宁雕像被教堂里摇曳的烛光所替代。那一瞬一个念头闪过：既然已经衣食难保，又何必糜费这许多明烛来敬献那虚无的神灵呢？这个念头是愚蠢的，就像苏联人当年驱逐东正教和中国人发疯似的破四旧一样。一个人要生存下去，需要的不仅仅是饮食男女，一个必不可少的东西是希望。在富裕的年代需要信仰来填塞空虚的灵魂，在饥馑的岁月更需要信仰的支撑。在《明镜周刊》上看到世界范围内宗教复兴的报道，毫不意外。

黑夜，刺骨的河水，冰雪覆盖的世界，阴冷的色调所充满的熟识的镜头，似乎所有属于那段动荡岁月的故事都发生在冬天，也许对走过那段岁月的人来说，那些冰冷的回忆确乎只该属于冬天。

那个真正称得上“社会主义”的时代并不属于我，我只看到那个时代远去的背影。我只记得祖父卖给我的三毛五分钱的蛋卷冰淇淋，折合三支半雪糕，七串冰棍儿，无上的美味。如今我当然可以每天吃三块五的冰淇淋，但也有人可以一掷千金，到底是三毛五的还是三块五的味道更好些呢？我不知道，就像暴发户和下岗工人在争论时代是不是进步了一样。

我们怀念过去，并不一定意味着那是一个更加美好的时代，更多时候只是在怀念一些与那个时代一同失去的东西，比如童年和青春；同时也在发泄对现实的不满，因为有人牵走了原本属于我们的科林托。

无论如何都只能继续前行，尽管不知道在前面等待的究竟是三百头小牛还是冰冷的手铐，毕竟个人相对于历史的变迁，与车厢里的科林托其实并没什么两样。只能回首对过去说一声‘Ciao’，再挥手向未来说一声‘Ciao’，有意思的意大利词语。

见书眼开

人不光是靠吃米活着的。这话没错，光吃米确实腻人，所以盼着过年吃饺子。读书也是一样，不知道是自己的眼光提高了还是出版物越来越滥，总之文献看得多了就感觉味同嚼蜡，寻找吸引眼球的闪光思想就像从沙堆里淘金子一样，读书疲劳，也想饺子吃了。

前两天正坐在计算机前百无聊赖地整理一篇已经写了很长时间的论文的引用文献，发现一处引用记录不全，于是复制、粘贴、google之。习惯性地随手点开google出来的第一行链接，页面上的文字竟让我感到许久未有的眼前一亮。

搜索栏里输入的是“Robert May, Theoretical Ecology”：凭借混沌模型而稳坐生态学界头把交椅的Robert May先生（现在得叫May爵爷了，当初还跟远在上海的朋友发短信探讨为啥May封的是Lord，而曼联的红鼻头老帅Fugerson封了个Sir）主编的这本书与1976年一面世便注定成为理论生态学领域的“新约”（至于旧约的位置自然属于Pielou夫人的An Introduction to Mathematical Ecology）。我看过1981年的第二版，两者之间虽然只相差四年，内容却也有不少重要的更新和补充。但不知为何，从此以后再无任何关于新版的消息，而只要May爵爷不发话，自然是没人有资格站出来主持新版的编著。此间虽然也出过像J. Murray写的Mathematical Biology一类的精彩之作，但依旧无法让人彻底放弃对署有R.M. May大名的第三版Theoretical Ecology的盼望。

然而工作繁忙，对理论的热情也只能暂且放在一旁，日子久了似乎也就渐渐忘却了。万万没有想到，那一刻在牛津大学出版社网页上出现的Theoretical Ecology的出版日期竟是2007年4月……我的老天！新版！真的是不敢相信自己的眼睛了。想象一下吧，时隔三十年，昔日武林霸主重出江湖，将会掀起怎样一场血雨腥风？鉴于学科的巨大变化，真的很难预测第三版的目录会是什么样子，我想上面大多数作者的名字也要更新换代了，不过只要封面上还写着R.M. May的大名，质量就终归是毋庸置疑的。

正是无巧不成书，当晚在Science上看到一片书评，心不在焉地扫了两眼摘要，另一个名字猛然跳了出来：Martin Nowak。两年以前我第一次留意到这个口音酷似现任加州州长（Nowak在报告会上自讽）的“年轻”的奥地利人，仅仅在读过他的几篇关于社会合作进化的文章以及他跟May爵爷合写的Virus Dynamics之后，就已经被他的智慧所惊呆了，同时也立刻意识到，此人极有可能成为继三个约翰（冯诺伊曼，梅纳德斯密斯和纳什），Robert McArthur, Robert May和Simon Levin之后又一个伟大的智者，甚至是更加耀眼的巨星 。当时在他的主页上挂着一本尚未完成的书稿的名字：Evolutionary Dynamics，然而迟迟未见动静。想不到竟在同一天发现他的书也已经完成了，实在是太过巧合，简直是神奇。从HIV到人类语言，Nowak一直在用最为简洁和连贯的数学形式解释整个生物世界万千现象的进化历程，精彩实在已经不足加以形容，而只能冠以漂亮二字，不知是不是在音乐之都长大的人都有莫扎特一般的艺术才华，反正Nowak写出来的文章真的可以算作杰出的艺术品了。如果自然果真如毕达哥拉斯所设想的那样以整数之美为基础，那么Nowak大约已经距离真理不远了。Nature上的书评是这样开头的：Martin Nowak is undeniably a great artist, working in the medium of mathematical biology. He may be a great scientist as well: time will tell, and readers of this book can form their own preliminary judgement. 我更愿意做一点儿小小的改动：He must be a great scientist as well: time will prove. 当年我从生物系出走，最主要的原因就是觉得这个领域由于缺少一个真正的理论大师而陷于枯燥和平庸，也许，Nowak就是带来火种的人。这是我的预言。

如果将来有一天真的有机会在大学里开一门理论生态学或者数学生物学，再或者进化动力学，且不管它叫什么名字，我一定会选这两本书作教材。这是我的许诺。

吃饺子的效果当然并不仅仅在于饱一时之口福，两本书出版的消息直接导致几日来夜不能寐，几年来积攒的想法爆炸似的一齐迸将出来，索性连下一步的研究计划也因此做出了重大的改动。也许梦想和现实能够再度走到一起。

书这东西，读得越多，就越是感到自身的渺小无力，于是只好回过头去继续读书，所谓象牙塔也就是这样一个自增强的封闭环路。唯有见书眼开，可惜这两本书一时半会儿在国内还拿不到，眼下只能通过一章Introduction和一大堆五星级的书评来窥测扉页背后的具体内容。望眼欲穿，怎奈万恶的出版物入关审查吓得亚马逊死活不敢向大陆开放，只好祈祷国图的动作能尽量快一点儿，或者干脆咬咬牙托人从大洋彼岸带两本过来算了。忍无可忍，强烈要求涨工资！

别了，白暨豚

从前在中国的长江里生活着一种大型哺乳动物，它的名字叫白暨豚。

我经常敲错键盘，不幸的是，这一次恐怕没有错，就是“从前”。

Swissinfo，2006年12月15日消息：“瑞士动物学家August Pfluger和他的合作伙伴在为期6周对3300公里段长江的考察过程中，未能找到一只白暨豚的踪迹。”随后在2006年终一期的Science上，这一报道被正式公布出来。

诚然，这样一次考察还不能够断言白暨豚已经彻底灭绝，乐观者尚且可以对一两条“漏网之鱼”抱一线希望，而且这样的一线希望大可以永久地在潘多拉的盒子里躺下去，因为从逻辑上讲，我们永远也没有办法证明一件东西是不存在的，就像人类对外星人的幻想一样。

好吧，即便还有一只、两只、或者三五只白暨豚真的还存在长江的某条支流上，又怎样？从基因交流的基本要求来看，这样小的种群，也只不过是“活着的灭绝种”而已。从这种意义上讲，白暨豚确实已经灭绝了。

没什么可伤心的。不过是在因人类文明而灭绝的长长的物种名单上又添上了一个新的名字而已，用不了太久，我们就会忘记它，就像我们忘记华南虎一样。这也要怪它们自己，谁让它们没有熊猫一样可爱的形象，可以赢得政要的宠幸，冷宫中妃嫔的死活又有谁会在意？自然选择不就是这般残酷吗？

也许会有新一轮的宣传活动，有爱心的青年人高举“救救XXX”的标语，声泪俱下的演讲……尽管不忍心，但是我还是要说：天真，简直是愚蠢！难道高尚的道德是建立在空中楼阁之上的吗？在美国、在欧洲可以讨论动物权利，在中国，连人的生存问题尚且未能解决，你要我们怎样？

可是，中国真的很穷吗？我已经对满大街的高级跑车习以为常，对高官富贾的敛财丑闻见惯不惊，所以当我听说长江上渔民的船桨绞死白暨豚的时候，却不知该为谁感到悲伤。公共的悲剧并非不可避免，但解决之道在这样一个严重倾斜的基础之上却绝难实现。也许我们对自然的索取的确过于贪婪，但这个词语显然不可能属于穷人。

今天是白暨豚，明天又该轮到谁？

原来不是恶搞……

前两天在某中文媒体上看到一篇关于朝鲜从德国引进巨兔的报道，当时只当是小报编辑又来拿咱穷兄弟恶搞，也没在意。

万没想到今天居然在德国媒体上看到了原文，敢情还真有这事儿，看来咱们的媒体在报道这种娱乐性新闻的时候还挺守规矩的嘛。

FAT GERMAN RABBITS TO FEED POOR

Monster Bunnies For North Korea

By David Crossland

An east German pensioner who breeds rabbits the size of dogs has been asked by North Korea to help set up a big bunny farm to alleviate food shortages in the communist country. Now journalists and rabbit gourmets from around the world are thumping at his door.

也不知是出于慈悲为怀的人道主义精神，还是念当年社会主义兄弟的阶级感情，照片上这位东德老兄居然还为了照顾朝鲜，主动把价格从200欧元降到了80欧元的跳楼价……“这是什么精神？这是国际主义精神！”

可惜好心到头来都是驴肝肺。要说是为了给朝鲜伟大领袖改善改善伙食我还相信，要说养兔子解决饥荒……这主意还不如晋惠帝“食肉糜”的方案来得靠谱呢。

Gambling on the Commons

From Hardin to Ostrom, the clouds of the tragedy of the commons always are suspended over the fate of human beings. Conservation versus development, elite versus the poor, haves versus have-nots, meritocracy versus anarchy... Which is good? Which is better? Which is, in the end, the best? There is no way to define "good" but trade-offs after trade-offs.

What we know is that people must live, so does the next generation.

A lone Brazil nut tree remains in a deforested area of the Amazon, which loses an area the size of New Jersey to clear-cutting and timbering every year.

Brazil Gambles on Monitoring of Amazon Loggers - New York Times

By LARRY ROHTER

Published: January 14, 2007

REALIDADE, Brazil — A Brazilian government plan set to go into effect this year will bring large-scale logging deep into the heart of the Amazon rain forest for the first time, in a calculated gamble that new monitoring efforts can offset any danger of increased devastation.

The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in an attempt to create Brazil’s first coherent, effective forest policy, is to begin auctioning off timber rights to large tracts of the rain forest. The winning bidders will not have title to the land or the right to exploit resources other than timber, and the government says they will be closely monitored and will pay a royalty on their activities.

But how to monitor? And further more, what about the rural poor?

“To think that they can monitor violations in the absence of the state is a dream,” Sister Paes said. “The Amazon has no tradition of the poor standing up to the powerful. People simply don’t know how to do that.”

It's indeed a luxury gamble, with the future as the stake. If they lose, it's not they that lose the game, but us, because it's our Amazon.

病毒&生命

在这病毒横行的世界上，谁都难以幸免。我中了流感病毒，室友中了电脑病毒。

于是互相威胁：你若传染我，我就传染你！结果，我的电脑目前安然无恙，哥们儿开始流鼻涕了。看来流感病毒还是比电脑病毒更胜一筹。

可能有人会抗议：流感病毒是生物，电脑病毒算什么？

这话听着耳熟。历史上也有人喊：白人是人，黑人算什么？现在我们说种族歧视是不对的，要人人平等。在推广一下，病毒也要平等。

记得我在大学里听细胞生物学课的时候，教授一上来就讲“病毒不是生命”。也难怪，他是讲细胞生物学的，他眼里的生命标准底限自然是“有细胞结构”，所以就把病毒拒之门外了。不过我是个宽容的人，所以标准一向比较低，凡是“能自我复制，并且能自发变异”的东西在我这里都算是生命，于是病毒也就可以有个位置坐了。那么朊病毒呢？这伙计连核酸都没有，可是人家也照样能复制，能变异，那些大脑空洞站立不稳的疯牛就是证人，所以也该一视同仁，进来吧。

再往下争议就更大了：电脑病毒算不算生命？在Karl Sigmund写的"Games of Life"的一开始就讨论了这个问题。听说过Life这个在七十年代风行于全世界各实验室的电脑游戏吗？其实说开了就是最简单的原胞自动机模型，别看简单，就几个小方格，一两条规则，一旦运行起来就变化无穷，难以预测，弄得实验员都整天盯着电脑屏幕发愣，气得老板们火冒三丈。这小家伙的奇妙之处就在于“能自我复制，并且能自发变异”，所以，我不能因为它个头小就把它关在门外。相比之下，现今在互联网上流窜肆虐的电脑病毒可要比它们的老祖先Life复杂多了，不过探究起来，它们的生存关键还是祖上传下来的那两件老手艺：复制，变异。所以，电脑病毒当然也算是生命。

在大胆地往前迈一步，思想能不能也算生命？昨天达尔文提出一进化论，后边的人就学了来发展演绎，繁衍变化出一大堆相关理论；今天我出一馊主意，经好事者道听途说、以讹传讹，说不定就发展成了歪理邪说。Dawkins拿无形的思想跟有形的基因类比，给取了个名字叫meme，它也能像基因一样以人为载体复制传播，并在此过程中不断变异，所以 -- 依此标准，思想也该算生命。Martin Nowak就在用生物进化论的方法研究语言的进化，很有意思。

总之如果按我的原则划分生命，所有生命，不管是K对策者，还是R对策者，它们的命运就全都由一个参数r决定了，借用人口学的词汇来讲，就是出生率与死亡率之比。凡是复制传播的速率比自身消亡的速率快的，就能生存繁盛起来；反之，灭绝就是早晚的事。变异也是重要的，不然如果都千篇一律，就算繁殖再快，一个环境变化的选择压下来，也就都完蛋了。流感病毒之所以年年爆发，而不会像天花一样被人类斩草除根，就是因为它变异得快，所以弹性大。听说这一次流行的是乙型流感病毒，不易大规模爆发，也不知是传播能力弱，还是患者康复得快，但愿不是感染者死得太快。阿弥陀佛。

Core-Crust Society of China

The new year, 2007, came in, not waiting for the dusts to settle in the scandal of Shanghai's social insurance funds. And the argument on the plan of pension, which has only covered less than one eighth of the population of China, is going fiercely without any sign to converge to a conclusion. While just five days earlier, on the other side of the Pacific, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor of California, proposed extending health care coverage to all of California’s 36 million residents. If I had laughed at him as a brainless muscular robot before, I 'd now take it back. The contrast between the largest Socialistic nation and the largest Capitalistic nation reminds me of an essay in the German best-seller "World War for Wealth: The Global Grab for Power and Prosperity". So, I decide to excerpt part of it here as an alert.

• "When it comes to redistributing power and wealth, the state plays an important -- one could argue a decisive -- role. In the West, governments ensure that the most productive members of the economy help the whole of society. Companies keep most of the profits. But not all.
  
  The result is beneficial to everyone, and not just to those directly involved in producing wealth. The social welfare state facilitates the transfer of money from the sphere of production to those sectors of society where no wealth is produced, only consumed. Wealth created in society's economically productive core thus reaches those people on the perimeter not directly involved in a country's economic activity. Take pensioners as an example. They were once part of the productive core, but now are not -- they have meandered from the hot core to the cold crust. The money these retirees need to survive is now earned by those working today.
  
  This linking of the working world with those who have already retired is called a generational contract. It is a system characteristic of most countries in the West where the core and the crust are connected.
  
  Children are also on the non-productive fringes of society, though they are moving in the opposite direction of the pensioners. Eventually, children will enter the society's economic core and will begin to make their contribution to the production of wealth.
  
  It is important to understand the role of the Western state in all this: The state ensures that the productive sphere is linked to the unproductive sphere -- that capitalism and the welfare state work together. It is a cooperation that reaches back as far as 100 years in some instances and has developed into a number of stable pacts known as the social safety net. It is a system that cannot be canceled -- indeed it is one of the inalienable characteristics of Western economic systems."
  
  
• "In Germany, the obligation to redistribute wealth is explicitly stated in the constitution. It stipulates that society must use energy created at the productive center to warm those who might otherwise be freezing at the margins.
  
  In China, the state has another function entirely: It acts as a firewall between society's center and those at the fringes in order to ensure that nothing from the boiling core is ever allowed to cool at the outer edges. The retreat of state-controlled industry meant bidding farewell to the social net -- a notion Karl Marx would have despised.
  
  Life-long employment contracts were replaced with temporary contracts, and firing workers became a possibility. If employees refused to buy the apartments their companies had provided for them, they were simply forced out. In the private sector, social welfare was ignored right from the outset. It was left up to the family -- or nobody at all -- to take on the social responsibility the government and companies had abandoned. Since then the state has stood ready to defend the separation of the haves from the have-nots with force. And the China of today is home to the ugliest labor market practices in the world."

• "The Chinese communists are making no secret of their shift in mentality. The constitution has even been amended -- a message to everyone that this is no reform, but a revolution. Until March 2004, the state had been responsible for the "guidance, control and regulation" of the private sector. The state was the big brother that disciplined and badgered private companies -- it carried the carrots and sticks. The new constitution has, for the first time, declared private property to be a private matter.
  
  Property is now defined as inviolable. Even inheritance will be protected in China in the future. Article 11 of the recently approved constitution even calls on the state to serve the private sector and to provide "encouragement and support" to the capitalists. The redistribution of privately earned wealth for the good of society, as the German constitution stipulates, is thus transformed into a state responsibility for protecting the private sphere. Capitalists are the new ruling class and property in China is now bestowed with more rights than the people. Indeed, no other country in the world courts its entrepreneurs to the extent that China does."
  

• "The contrast with the West couldn't be greater. Whereas European workers are increasingly landing in early retirement programs, in work-creation schemes, or on the dole, Asia is heading in the opposite direction. New employees are constantly being brought into the production process -- albeit under the brutal work conditions dictated by the system. The non-existing social state thus fulfils a further function. It not only keeps the inner-core of the economy from wasting energy by heating the fringes, it also brings extra manpower into the system. Because of the lack of social welfare, these workers have no choice but to offer their services at any price.

  Company's profits come from the difference between the starvation wages earned by employees and the money made from sales. This is what fuels the steadily increasing temperature at the center of the Chinese, Indian and many other Asian economies. The massive amount of manpower available means that labor costs will remain as cheap as they currently are for the foreseeable future. Each year, millions of people in China alone leave the countryside in order to serve the country's industry. They live in cramped quarters, share beds with one or two other workers and make do with wages as low as a few cents an hour. And there are an estimated 175 million unemployed people in China and 100 million unemployed people in India who can still be utilized. And that's not even to mention the 375 million people still tilling the land in each of the two countries who are just waiting to get their chance in the city. This manpower reserve alone is larger than the entire working population of the United States and Europe combined.
  
  It is important to understand the difference between a state on the march and a society on the wane: The unemployed don't have the same significance in every part of the world. In the West, the unemployed signify the past and are a burden to the state because they cost money. Those out of work in China, on the other hand, are the energy reserve of the future -- and are useful to the economy because their presence helps keep wages down for those who do have jobs. They ensure that the Chinese workers who are already employed stay cheap and cheerful.
  
  The strategy of the Asian leaders is both brutal and clever. Brutal, because governments are now excluding millions of their fellow citizens from growing prosperity. Many people in the countryside, in particular in the north of the country, see a China on television that has little to do with their daily lives. But the strategy is also clever because it allows the state to jealously guard its core growth. The result could very well be an export industry of proportions terrifying to the rest of the world."

I'm not sure about the future of my motherland. However, though a utopia is not realizable definitely, I hope for a better one than the present, in which even the crust could be warmed.

布什：饮鸩止渴

随手翻阅近几天各大媒体的头版：布什，布什，布什，布什……要从这堆bushes中检出一条干净的新闻来还真是得有好眼力才行 。

若说如今娱乐业的小人物为了出名不择手段倒还好理解，可是这种行为放到当今世界第一帝国的总统身上，就实在是匪夷所思了。从前看过一部电影，名字叫“Jesus Christ: Superstar"，莫非小布什这回是想跟他们教主较量一把？

还是不要侮辱圣人了。说正经的，小布什的根本问题还是智慧不足，不光是他本人智慧不足，而是共和党政府集体大脑短路。从911过后开始，美国大兵就在布什政府鼠目寸光的指挥下开始了南征北战。兵法云：不战而屈人之兵，善之善者也。不过要读懂孙子还是需要一定的智商的，小布什嘛，看来只够玩玩电玩的份儿，所以他的子弟兵们也只好拖着“半条命”到处钻山洞打巷战了。

显然，头脑简单的人很难想象现实世界的复杂程度，要不然这帮单边主义者怎么会相信单靠军事力量就能解决社会问题呢？过度的简化就是错误，以一个错误的理论模型指导实践，后果可想而知。其实从入侵阿富汗的那一天起，布什就在一条错误的道路上越走越远，至于伊拉克，已经是这种错误战略的必然延续。今天的混乱局面早在五年前就已注定，不过是时间的延滞更加重了这种戏剧性（也许叫悲剧性更为恰当）而已。

然而很不幸，小布什比人们所能想象的极限更为愚蠢。为了掩饰自己的错误，他居然会选择用最不恰当的方式加以表面修饰，增兵伊拉克无异于抱薪救火，我能找到的最为贴切的形容这种行为的词汇就是“饮鸩止渴”。他想以一个勇士的形象名垂青史吗？就算他自己战死在伊拉克，后人也不会感谢他的。倒让人联想起赤膊战马超的许褚，“很中了几箭”，还要被人笑批：“谁叫你赤膊！”

美国是一个没有历史的国家，所以诞生出历史盲的牛仔倒也不足为奇，可是如果就此以井底蛙的逻辑推而广之，以为全世界都跟他们一样野蛮就实在难以原谅了。像伊拉克这样一个历经文明兴衰、拥有复杂文化、宗教和民族关系的社会，相对于美国来说，实在是太过复杂了。倘是如当年处理战后日本一样，先有本尼迪克特一样的大学者深入调查分析一番，倒还有几分希望。可惜布什智力有限，又遇人不淑，赶上了亨廷顿一帮人，正好比盲人瞎马，不栽倒沟里才真的奇怪了。

事到如今，眼看黔驴技穷，任期又所剩不多，索性如宋江一般饮鸩止渴；可他若单是自暴自弃也就罢了，可怜伊拉克老百姓都要像李逵一样被强拉陪酒。可恶！

民主党人John Kerry在上一次竞选时曾经攻击布什："George W. Bush, W means Wrong!" 嘿，还真被这老兵哥给说中了。

My time with Tim (V): I believe I can fly

Someone enjoys his life in cage, while some guy belongs to the sky. Out of doubt, Tim is of the latter (though he is not a Superman). He is more akin to an albatross than me, but as to his bald head, I'd rather call him a griffon, just the giant we saw hovering over the mountain.

Wherever he is, on the peak of a mountain with gale blowing, or in a crowded car in a dusty metropolis, his eyes are always focusing on the sky. Birds play a crucial role in his life, not only in his eyes, but in his heart. Or, say, where old Tim is, there are birds with him.

One day After returning to Beijing, our little team went to a restaurant for dinner with Tim in his red overcoat, which was taken over from his father and said to be about 50 years old -- double my age! It appeared really too old so that when it was taken off, downs left on his business suit inside. We kidded, "Oh, Tim, look! You have grown feather." Tim looked and replied, "Oh, yes. But not enough (to fly)."

Later, Tim added, "It's also OK, if some feather large enough." With a second of hesitation, "But it doesn't matter. Eventually, I'll be able to fly, in the heaven. If you want to see, then you have to fly there too."

One can fly, because he believes so.

Squirrels: The Prophet

The nature is too fantastic to imagine. Among the miracles, "boom and bust" is one of the most fascinating, referring to the famous "lynx and hare" and powder beetle.

However, when we human beings are having a headache to predict future with great uncertainty, our little neighbors, the red squirrels, exhibit a wonderful foresight. Have they learned the Votka-Volterra equation?

If so, the teacher must be no one but the great Evolution. How did he get it?

Read the research story and amazing discovery in Science Magazine:

Anticipatory Reproduction and Population Growth in Seed Predators -- Boutin et al. 314 (5807): 1928 -- Science: " Mast seeding, the intermittent, synchronous production of large seed crops by a population of plants, is a well-known example of resource pulses that create lagged responses in successive trophic levels of ecological communities. These lags arise because seed predators are thought capable of increasing reproduction and population size only after the resource pulse is available for consumption. The resulting satiation of predators is a widely cited explanation for the evolution of masting. Our study shows that both American and Eurasian tree squirrels anticipate resource pulses and increase reproductive output before a masting event, thereby increasing population size in synchrony with the resource pulse and eliminating the population lag thought to be universal in resource pulse systems."

逃

大学毕业之前，班里每个人都得录一段口供，被问到有什么遗憾，回答：错过好多……

什么错过，分明是逃避，偏要说得冠冕堂皇，自欺欺人！

活了二十又几年，大半的日子都在逃避，就像卓别林电影里那个总是被人追捕的八字脚小个子一样，东躲西藏。躲得了初一，十五又如何？

千斤重担，一逃了之。美其名曰，无为而治。满心指望大事化小，小事化了，结果又如何？自然是小事拖大，大事拖垮，到头来烂摊子砸手。呔，哪里逃？！

无路可逃。

索性不跑了，坐下等。等谁？戈多。

戈多，他会来的，也许明天。

我们在寻找什么

两年前在《南风窗》上看到一篇影评，从此默记下“林昭”这个名字。

两年过去，灯火阑珊之处，偶然的机会找到这部《寻找林昭的灵魂》。看过之后，本想连夜写点儿东西出来，却又因刚刚为《异端的权利》写过一段评论，未免有痈赘之嫌，故欲言又止。

不想昨天在《明镜周刊》上又读到关于审判红色高棉的报道，于是相似的恐怖历史顿时在脑子里形成共鸣：革命，清洗，屠杀……为什么，为什么相似的悲剧会反复的重演？是社会制度的必然，还是人类劣根的宿命？

我们需要一个答案，我们需要一条通往光明的道路。我们在寻找。

答案，就在卡斯特利奥被查禁的文稿里；出路，就在林昭用鲜血写就的诗篇中。能够与对权力的无限欲望向抗衡的， 是自由、平等与博爱的观念；能够从宿命的漩涡中自我救赎的，是对异端的宽容。

人在很大程度上是理性的，这种理性总是表现为自私而短视，总是甘愿为蝇头小利的诱惑而放弃自由与平等操守，而且乐于以幸灾乐祸之心隔岸观火，这是自然选择赋予成功个体的奖赏，却也是社会悲剧的根源。因而即便精熟博弈于心，也依旧难以逃脱囚徒困境的惩罚，直到牛轭牢牢套在肩头才发现悔之晚矣。

自然选择从不许诺未来，如果人类要摆脱恐龙的宿命，我们需要更大的智慧。这智慧不可能属于任何个人所独有，对个人的盲目崇拜几乎必然是悲剧的序章。

重读一下马丁·尼莫拉牧师的墓碑上的碑文吧：“当初他们（德国纳粹）屠杀共产党，我没有作声，因为我不是共产党。后来他们杀犹太人，我没有作声，因为我不 是犹太人。再接下来，他们杀天主教徒，我仍然保持沉默，因为我也不是天主教徒。最后他们开始对付我的时候，已经没有人为我说话了。”

沉默的羔羊，下一个就是我，下一个就是你。

三十年也好，三百年也罢，历史终该有个了断，审判的意义并不在于将罪人送上绞架，而是为整个社会，整个民族，乃至整个世界提供一个反省的机会，为后人铸一口警示的洪钟。而这审判只能由一个成熟的公民社会来实现，因为一切信条的基础是人生而平等，这是阿尔法，这是欧米迦。否则，审判仍将为仇恨和欲望所主导，历史也必将继续重复无尽的悲剧循环。

记得在国图的一次讲座上，一位听众提出了这样的精彩问题：“中国现在存在‘公共’吗？如果没有怎么办？”回答也同样精彩：“如果没有，我们就创造一个。”

我们需要创造一个公共社会，一个自由平等的社会，一个尊重异端的社会。为你，为我，为了每一个平等的人。

任重而道远。

民主饥渴的荒野

偶然有机会看了回电视，正赶上转播红楼梦演员的海选，好一个大场面！

从群众中选演员倒不是什么新鲜事，记得当年《乱世佳人》和《罗马假日》的女主角也是这么公开招选出来的。新鲜的是，群众反应居然如此强烈，真可谓振臂一呼，从者如云……前一阶段听说刘心武先生的红楼梦点评大受欢迎，但也不至于……莫非红学真的已经在民间回暖到这样的热度了？

从最近几年在全国各地与不同阶层民众的接触情况来看，与老百姓生活关系最密切的事情总不外乎就业、医疗、教育和其他一些公共福利问题，而诸如选演员这种只涉及特殊行业又与国计民生无关痛痒的事情，怎么看也不像是能吸引大众普遍参与的活动。继而想起前两年传说中红及大江南北的所谓“超女”，虽没有亲见，却也已经被身边关注者释放出的热浪所灼。相比之下，反倒是人大代表选举的时候宣传板前门可罗雀，咄咄怪事，何以如此？

看来还得重新解释解释。

这回先从人大代表选举说起：本人作为遵纪守法的光荣的中华人民共和国成年公民，从来也没有行使过宪法赋予的投票权，是我不想行使自己的民主权利吗？且先假设是这样，那么其他人呢？为何大家的公民意识都如此淡漠，莫非是中国的传统封建观念还在作祟？开玩笑，自本朝伊始，历经土改、四清、反右、文革等等一次又一次的革命风暴的洗礼，封建的杂草早已被翳除殆尽，国人的造反精神足可以笑傲全球。又经改革开放近三十载，虽严防死守，亦不免有异邦流毒夹带混入民间，纵使我等冥顽不灵，每隔三五年便旁观一次美帝和台伪政权头破血流的选战闹剧，依样画葫芦总也该知晓民主权利是个什么模样了。不过为了保证祖国安定祥和、和谐统一的大局一百年不动摇，避免十七年前的逆流再起，我等小民的草根权利难免要做出些许牺牲，总之在大学里亲历了一次二选二和一次三选四的学生选举之后，我决定还是自动自觉地放弃自己的民主权利为好。

但是事情往往不会就此风平浪静，恰如一个人一旦经过了青春期的性启蒙之后，即便如唐三藏一般严持戒律、道行高深，也终究不免在女儿国主床前动了凡心，又何况我等凡人乎？于是在长期压抑与禁锢之后，一旦有任何可觅的机会，定然争先恐后，趋之若鹜，近几年就连美国的NBA全明星票选也成了亿万饥渴华人的猎物。我党英明神武，自然早已深谙此理，于是待时机成熟便借电视娱乐之途径，开一方便之门，投之以干材，以消民主饥渴之欲火。短信互动，全国海选，俊男靓女，以及不俊的男和不靓的女，谁在台上并不重要，重要的是我的投票可以决定她或他的命运；莫谈政治，莫谈经济，莫谈文化，莫谈……莫谈国事，只有娱乐，娱乐，娱乐至死，奇异的中国式民主，有中国特色的大茶馆。

某外籍新闻工作者曾经在博客上称中国是全世界最大的记者桑拿中心，依我看他的观察还是不够细致，应该这样说才对：中国是全世界最民主的桑拿中心。